— Wednesday, March 09th Louisville Cardinals @ Virginia Cavaliers
The final of four Wednesday games at the ACC Tournament features two programs who are used to playing in the NCAA Tournament. Louisville (13-18, 6-14) has had a season to forget, and they face Virginia (18-12, 12-8), who needs a deep tournament run to avoid missing the NCAA’s for the first time in a decade. Tip-off is set for approximately 9:30 p.m. ET as the fourth game of the night on ESPN2 from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
Virginia beat Louisville 71-61 on Saturday and 64-52 on January 24. The Cavaliers have won 13 of the last 14 against the Cardinals, including a win at the 2018 ACC Tournament. The only time Louisville has won against UVA since 2015 was a home game in February of 2020.
Cardinals Season Has Been a Tough One
Louisville is 10-20-1 ATS this season, and the under is 17-13-1 in their 31 games. They were 0-6 this season against the top four seeds in the ACC Tournament. The Cardinals went 1-11 to end the regular season and haven’t won consecutive games since December 29 – January 6.
The Cardinals advanced to this round as the No. 11 seed in the tournament, beating No. 14 Georgia Tech 84-74 on Tuesday night. Jarrod West scored 20 points, including a pair of 3-pointers late in the game to hold off Georgia Tech. The Cardinals put five players in double figures Tuesday night as Malik Williams posted a double-double, and Noah Locke had 16 points.
Louisville averages 67.3 ppg on the season, but they allow 70.6 ppg. The offense ranks 281st in the nation in shooting (42.2%) and 316th in 3-point shooting (30.9%). The defense isn’t much better, ranking in the bottom 100 in the country against the 3-pointer (35%) and overall shooting (44%).
Locke leads the team at 9.5 ppg and 62 3-pointers made, while Williams averages 9.3 ppg. Nine players average at least 5.4 ppg, but no one averages in double figures. Williams leads the team at 7.7 rpg, and no Cardinals player averages 3.0 apg.
UVA Defense Gives Them a Chance
Virginia enters the NCAA Tournament with a NET ranking of 77, and they are 3-6 against Quad 1 opponents and 4-1 against Quad 2 teams. If they aren’t in the NCAA Tournament, the Cavs can look directly at their four Quad 3 losses and a disastrous Quad 4 loss at home to Navy. Getting past Louisville for more Quad 1 opportunities against the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Duke would improve the resume.
The challenge for Virginia will be winning three or even four games in four days with what is essentially a seven-man rotation. Seven players have appeared in all 30 games, averaging at least 15 minutes per game. The rest of the roster averages a combined six minutes per game, and only four others have even played 15 games this season.
UVA has the best defense in the ACC, allowing 60.4 ppg. In their last 11 games, an opponent has scored more than 70 just one time, and seven of those teams have scored less than 65. They are 15-14-1 ATS, and the over is 15-13-2 in their 30 games.
Jayden Gardner leads the Cavaliers with 15.2 ppg and 6.9 rpg. Armann Franklin averages 11.5, and Kihei Clark is at 10.2. Reece Beekman leads the team with 5.3 apg, and Clark has made a team-leading 51 3-pointers.
Betting Analysis
- Louisville Cardinals +5.5 (-110) Money Line +185
- Virginia Cavaliers -5.5(-110) Money Line -225
- Total Points: 124.5 Over -110. Under -110.
These teams are both offensively challenged, but at least Virginia still gets it done on the defensive end. This is a bad matchup for Louisville, especially coming off a full-effort game on Tuesday. Virginia is desperate to win as well, and you have to question the motivation for Louisville at this point in what has been a disastrous season.
Betting Pick: Virginia -5.5 (-110)
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