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— Saturday, February 05th Kentucky Wildcats @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Fresh off a resounding win over Kansas, the Kentucky Wildcats are back in the top five as they head to Alabama this weekend. The No. 5 Wildcats (18-4, 7-2) sit in second place in the SEC while Alabama (14-8, 4-5) has fallen to sixth. Tipoff at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa is set for 8:00 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN.
Alabama has won two straight games in the series, once in each location. Prior to 2021, the Wildcats had won seven of eight against Alabama, but their last win in Tuscaloosa was in 2017. They will meet again in Lexington on February 19.
Wildcats Back at Full Strength
Kentucky is 10-12 ATS this season, and the total is 11-11 in their 22 games. They are 3-3 in true road games, with an 18-point win at No. 5 Kansas last weekend but a 9-point loss at No. 1 Auburn the Saturday before.
The Wildcats rank eighth in the nation at 81.9 ppg, and they are sixth in shooting at 49.3%. Kentucky shoots 35.3% from deep and also rank in the top 15 in the nation in rebounding. Kentucky’s defense allows 64.4 ppg, and opponents shoot just 30.5% from deep.
When Kentucky has all of their players available, they are undefeated this season. Oscar Tshiebwe leads the team in scoring at 16.1 ppg and is the national leader in rebounding at 15.2 per game. He also shoots 61% from the field and attempts more than five free throws per game, making 70%.
Freshman TyTy Washington is averaging 12.8 ppg, with Kellan Grady at 12.0 ppg. Overall the Wildcats have six players averaging at least 8.8 ppg and four shooting at least 30% from deep.
Tide Turn it Up from Deep
Alabama is 8-13-1 ATS this season, and the over is 15-7 in their 22 games. They are 10-1 at home, with the loss coming against Auburn on January 11. Alabama knocked off No. 4 Baylor last weekend at home but then lost by 19 at No. 1 Auburn on Tuesday. Saturday will be their third straight game against a top-5 team and their fifth this season (2-2).
Alabama’s offense also ranks in the top 15 with 81.4 ppg, but they are in the bottom 50 in 3-point shooting at 31.4%. The Tide have struggled on defense ranking 327th while allowing 76 ppg and 44% shooting.
Alabama is a tough team to decipher with wins over Gonzaga, LSU, Baylor, Tennessee, and Houston. But they also have losses to Iona, Davidson, Missouri, Georgia, and Memphis. They average more than 30 3-point attempts on the season, and when those shots fall, they can beat anyone in the country.
Jaden Shackelford leads the team in scoring at 17.6 ppg and 37.3% shooting from 3-point range. Jahvon Quinerly is averaging 14.8 ppg to go with 4.3 apg, while Keon Ellis leads the Tide with 6.2 rpg to go with 12.0 ppg.
Betting Analysis
- Kentucky Wildcats -1.5 (-110) Money line -120
- Alabama Crimson Tide +1.5 (-110). Money Line +100
- Total Points 157. Over -110. Under -110
Kentucky is the more consistent team, while Alabama is a streaky team that relies on the 3-pointer. The Tide also tend to get in foul trouble, and that will hurt them against a team that shoots 73.1% from the line and grabs 41.5 rebounds per game. Kentucky can ride Tshiebwe to another big road win as long as they close off the 3-point line.
Betting Pick: Kentucky -1.5 (-110)
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