— Saturday, March 26th Arkansas Razorbacks @ Duke Blue Devils
A Final Four berth is on the line in the second game on Saturday as the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (31-6) face the No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (28-8).
Duke is attempting to get Coach Mike Krzyzewski to his 13th Final Four and first since 2015 in his final year coaching. Tip off in the West Regional Final is set for 8:49 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco and will air on TBS.
Duke is 12-4 in the Elite Eight under Coach K, but they’ve lost their last two games in this round. Arkansas lost to Baylor in the Elite Eight last season and haven’t been to the Final Four since 1995 when they lost to UCLA in the finals. Arkansas leads the all-time series 2-1, with the last meeting coming in the 1994 title game, won by the Razorbacks 76-72
Banchero Leads Duke’s Talented Starters
Duke is 19-16-2 ATS this season, and the over is 21-15-1 in their 37 games. The over is 8-1 in their last nine games, including the ACC Tournament and the first three games of the NCAA Tournament. Duke is 7-1 in neutral site games this season, with the only loss coming to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke ranks ninth nationally at 80.5 ppg, and they are 13th in the nation, shooting 49% from the field. They shoot 37.7% from 3-point range, 24th in the country, while holding teams to 30.2%, which ranks 37th. Defensively they allow 66.0 ppg, which is 85th overall.
Freshman Paolo Banchero leads Duke at 17.8 ppg and 7.8 rpg. He also leads the team in free throws made and free throws attempted. In the tournament, he is averaging 19.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg.
Duke’s five starters have all scored at least seven points in each tournament game, and all five were in double digits against both Cal-State Fullerton and Texas Tech.
Wendell Moore averages 13.5 ppg and leads Duke at 4.5 assists per game. Trevor Keels averages 11.3 ppg, with Mark Williams at 11.2 and AJ Griffin at 10.3. Griffin has made 46% of his 3-point attempts on the season with a team-leading 69 makes.
Notae Getting it Done for Arkansas
Arkansas is 21-14 ATS this season, and the over is 21-15 in their 36 games. They are 6-3 in neutral site games after going 5-4 on the road in the regular season. Arkansas has covered their last two games as an underdog, winning both games outright against Tennessee and Gonzaga.
The Razorbacks rank 40th in the nation at 77.3 ppg, but they shoot just 31.1% from the 3-point range. The defense ranks 150th at 68.2 ppg allowed, and they allow 32.6% shooting from deep. In upsetting Gonzaga, they held the nation’s top offense to 68 points on 37.5% shooting while forcing 15 turnovers.
JD Notae leads Arkansas in scoring at 18.5 ppg on the season, and he’s made a team-best 72 3-pointers. The senior had 21 points against Gonzaga and is averaging 18.7 ppg in the tournament. Stanley Umude had 21 points in the opening win over Vermont, while Jaylin Williams has a double-double in all three tournament games.
Umude averages 11.8 ppg while Williams and Au’Diese Toney are both at 10.7 ppg. Williams leads Arkansas with 9.6 rpg, and Notae leads the way with 3.7 apg. Williams has at least nine rebounds in 12 of the last 13 games and ten double-doubles in that stretch.
Betting Analysis
- Duke Blue Devils -3.5 (-110). Money Line -180
- Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5 (-110). Money Line +150
- Total Points: 147.5 Over -110. Under -110.
Duke is the sentimental story as they look to extend Coach K’s career and give him a shot at a sixth National Championship. Arkansas struggled to start the tournament but found their offense in the second half to upset Gonzaga. Both teams are playing with confidence, but Arkansas boasts the best defense left in the tournament and will keep this at a one-possession game.
Betting Pick: Arkansas +3.5 (-110)
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