— Wednesday, February 23rd Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers
The No.7 Duke Blue Devils (23-4, 13-3) remain the only ranked team in the ACC, and they have a one-game lead over Notre Dame in the standings. To win the title, they need to even the series against the Virginia Cavaliers (17-10, 11-6), who are fighting for their tournament lives. Tip off Wednesday at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Virginia shocked Duke 69-68 at Cameron Indoor Stadium 16 days ago, and they have won two of the last three. Duke is 3-1 in their last four trips to UVA, winning by 10 in 2019 and 2017. Since 1950 Duke leads the series 104-39, and they won the only matchup last season, 66-65, at home when Duke was unranked and UVA was No. 7.
Banchero the Real Deal for Duke
Duke is 15-10-2 ATS this season but have covered in just two of their last five games. The total is 13-13-1 in their 27 games this season, and the under has hit in four of the last five. Duke is 8-2 away from home on the season and 6-2 in true road games with losses at Ohio State and Florida State.
Since the UVA loss, the Blue Devils are 4-0, with three of those wins coming by double digits. They avenged the FSU loss on Saturday with an 88-70 win as Coach K returned to the sideline.
Duke’s offense ranks 16th in the nation in scoring (60.1 ppg), 17th in shooting (48.3%), and they lead the ACC with nearly 40 ppg in the paint. Overall the defense ranks 66th in scoring at 65.3 ppg allowed, and they are top 25 in 3-point defense at 29.7%.
Freshman Paolo Banchero leads the way with 16.9 ppg and 8.4 rpg. He has scored at least 11 points in every game this season, except the first UVA game when he finished with nine. . Banchero has gone over 20 points nine times and has eight double-doubles.
Wendell Moore Jr. is averaging 13.9 ppg while Trevor Keels (12.0), Mark Williams (10.9), and AJ Griffin (10.0) are also in double figures. Williams had 16 in the first game against UVA while Keels had 12 off the bench, but Banchero, Moore, and Griffin combined for 20. The Blue Devils shot 42% for the game and were held 12 points under their scoring average.
UVA Gets Defensive
Virginia is 13-13-1 ATS this season, and the over is 13-12-2 in their 27 games. The Cavaliers have only played two ranked teams, a loss at No. 15 Houston in early November and the win at Duke. If UVA finds itself out of the tournament, losses to Navy, James Madison, Clemson, and NC State will be the reason.
Since beating Duke, UVA has wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, but they also stumped at Virginia Tech, losing by none. They have the best defense in the ACC, allowing just 63.1 ppg, and they have allowed more than 70 points just once in the last month.
Virginia ranks 13th in the nation in scoring defense at 60.1 ppg as they use tempo to slow games down as usual and get less possessions. They allow 34% 3-point shooting which ranks 230th in the nation, and the offense ranks 270th in shooting the 3-pointer at 32%. UVA averages just 63.4 ppg, ranked 333rd in the country.
Jayden Gardner leads the Cavaliers with 15.3 ppg while Armann Franklin averages 11.6, and Kihei Clark is at 10.0. Gardner also leads the team in rebounding at 7.1, while Reece Beekman leads the team with 5.0 apg.
In the win at Duke, Gardner scored 17 points while Kadin Shedrick had 16 off the bench, and Franklin added 11. UVA won the game despite making just 2-of-12 from deep and getting outscored at the free throw line 18-5. They forced 15 Duke turnovers while committing just five themselves, and the Cavaliers shot 48% from the field.
Betting Analysis
- Duke Blue Devils -5 (-110) Money Line -215
- Virginia Cavaliers +5 (-110) Money Line +170
- Total Points: 130. Over -110. Under -110.
Virginia shut down the Blue Devils earlier this month, and now they must do it again. If Duke gets up early, UVA won’t have an answer as they simply cannot shoot the 3-ball and the Blue Devils have outstanding perimeter defense. The first game totaled 137 points, so take the over here and expect the same type of game.
Betting Pick: Over 130 (-110)
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