>The Green Bay Packers have a forecast 56% chance to win against The Cleveland Browns with a spread of -5.0/5.0 and an over/under of 44.5. The Green Bay Packers are 0 – 0 against The Cleveland Browns in the 2021-22 Season.
— Saturday, December 25th Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
The first of two Christmas Day games in the NFL features the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season against a COVID-ravaged team hoping to bounce back. The 7-7 Cleveland Browns are on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff race as they head to Wisconsin to face the 11-3 NFC North champion Green Bay Packers.
The kickoff at Lambeau Field in Green Bay is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on Christmas Day, with the game airing on FOX.
These two teams hadn’t met since 2017, when the Packers won in overtime in Cleveland. Green Bay leads the all-time series 13-7, including three straight wins since the Browns won on the road in 2005. The teams met in the 1966 NFL Championship Game, a Green Bay win, and five of the Browns wins in the series came before 1980.
Browns Hoping to Get Healthy
The Browns are 6-8 ATS this season, and the total is 7-7 in their 14 games. They are 2-4 away from home.
Cleveland’s game last week was delayed from Saturday to Monday with a COVID-19 outbreak. They lost at home to the Raiders without quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum, along with wideout Jarvis Landry, tight end Austin Hooper, running back Kareem Hunt, and many others. Hunt is expected to miss this week’s game as well, but the Browns are hopeful of getting most of the others back, including Mayfield.
Nick Mullens played last week with Mayfield and Keenum out, and he completed 20-of-30 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Mayfield has 13 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, 2,603 yards, and a 63 percent completion rate. He has a touchdown pass in five straight starts but hasn’t gone over 250 passing yards since October 10.
Nick Chubb ran for 91 yards and a touchdown last week while Hunt was out with COVID. Chubb has 1,017 yards in 11 games this season with seven touchdowns while no other back is over 500 yards. Hunt has accounted for five scores but has missed six games with injury and illness.
Landry, who has 38 catches for 397 yards and one touchdown, should be back this week along with Hooper, who has 33 catches for 291 and three scores. Tight end David Njoku has 30 catches for 436 yards and three scores, while wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones has three touchdowns and 478 yards receiving.
Rodgers Back in Control for Packers
The Packers are a league-best 11-3 ATS this season, and the under is 8-6 in their 14 games. They are unbeaten at Lambeau Field, dating back to last year’s NFC Championship Game loss to Tampa Bay. The Packers defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (325.8) and 9th in scoring (21.6) on the season.
The offense led by MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers ranks 9th in passing (253.6 ypg) and 14th in scoring (25.8 ppg). He needs one passing touchdown to break Brett Favre’s career team record, and he has 30 on the season to go with four interceptions.
Rodgers has gone over 300 yards in three of the last four games and has at least two passing scores in four straight games.
Aaron Jones leads the Packers with 657 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while AJ Dillon has 636 yards and three scores. The two have also combined for 70 catches for 614 yards and another eight receiving touchdowns, six by Jones.
Davante Adams has 96 catches on the season for 1,248 yards and eight touchdowns, and he has at least 100 yards in three of the last four games.
Randall Cobb and Marquez-Valdez Scantling are out on Saturday, leaving Allen Lazard as the second receiver. He has 27 catches for 321 yards and four scores on the season.
Betting Analysis
- Cleveland Browns +7.5 (-115). Money Line +260
- Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-105). Money Line -235
- Total: 46 points. Over -115. Under -105
The Packers have covered in all six home games this season, winning by an average of 13.6 points per game, and the closest game was an 8-point win over the Rams.
The pass rushers on both teams are fearsome, and the Browns need a healthy Myles Garrett (15 sacks) to make life difficult for Rodgers all game long.
The Packers’ opportunistic defense will feast on any Mayfield mistakes, and the Packers win by double digits.
Betting Pick: Packers -7.5 (-115)
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