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— Sunday, January 30th Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
After a crazy NFL Divisional Playoff Round, the AFC Championship Game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium for the fourth straight year. The AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs host the AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals as both teams advanced on the last play of the game. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on CBS.
These teams met in a fantastic game in Week 17 as the Bengals rallied from 14 points down to win 34-31 and clinch the division. The Chiefs won 45-10 with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback in 2018, but the Bengals have won five of the last six in the series. The teams have never met in the playoffs, with the Chiefs holding a 4-2 AFCCG record and the Bengals are 2-0.
Burrow Leading Bengals
The Bengals are 12-7 ATS this season, and the under is 11-8 in their 19 games. They are 6-3 on the road and have covered in five straight games as underdogs, winning four of those outright. The under has hit in each of the last six Bengals playoff games.
In the first two playoff games, Joe Burrow has thrown for 582 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. In the regular-season matchup, Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns while completing 30-of-39 passes.
Joe Mixon has 102 rushing yards in the playoff with one touchdown. He’s yet to break off a big run in the postseason, with his longest carry coming at 16 yards. Mixon ran for just 49 yards against the Chiefs in early January as the Bengals focused on their air attack.
Ja’Marr Chase has been the big-play receiver all season for the Bengals, and he has 14 catches for 225 yards in the playoffs but is yet to find the end zone. Tyler Boyd and tight end CJ Uzomah have touchdowns in the last two games, while Tee Higgins has 105 total yards.
Chase crushed the Chiefs with 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 while Higgins had 52 receiving yards, Boyd caught a touchdown, and Mixon had seven catches out of the backfield.
Mahomes Magic Rescue Chiefs
The Chiefs are 10-9 ATS this season, and the under is 12-7 in their 19 games. They are 9-2 at home and have won six straight home playoff games. After struggling to cover in the first half of the season, the Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in the last ten games.
In the first two playoff wins, Patrick Mahomes has 782 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He’s also the team’s leading rusher at 98 yards, including a rushing touchdown. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 28-14 lead as he threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 17.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from injury to rush for 60 yards on seven carries against Buffalo last week. In the first-round game, Jerick McKinnon ran for 61 yards, added 81 receiving, and scored a touchdown. Even without Edwards-Helaire the ground game had 155 yards last time against Cincinnati, with Darrel Williams scoring twice and piling up 88 yards on 14 carries.
In the two playoff games, Tyreek Hill has 16 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns, while Travis Kelce has 13 catches for 204 yards and two scores. McKinnon has 135 receiving yards, while Bryan Pringle has ten catches and three touchdowns. Kelce had one of the touchdowns against the Bengals in January, while Hill had six catches for 40 yards.
Betting Analysis
- Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (-105). Money line +285
- Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-115) Money line -360
- Total Points 55 Over -110, Under -110
Neither team turned it over in the first matchup, and the Chiefs had four sacks to the Bengals none. Kansas City needs to get Tyrann Mathieu back from concussion protocol and pressure Burrow in his first Championship game. The Bengals will look to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field, easier said than done, but they do relish the underdog role.
Betting Pick: Bengals +7.5 (-105)
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