— Sunday, January 23rd Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
The final playoff game of the Divisional Round is the main event in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game as Josh Allen, and the Buffalo Bills travel to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
With the Tennessee Titans losing on Saturday, the winner of this game will host the Cincinnati Bengals next week with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount Plus.
These teams met in Kansas City back in October, and the Bills won convincingly 38-20. Last year the Chiefs won the AFC Championship Game against Buffalo 38-24, but the Bills have won two of their last three trips to Kansas City. Buffalo leads the all-time series 27-23-1, and the teams have split four playoff matchups.
Allen, Bills Looking to Get Over the Hump
The Bills are 10-6-2 ATS this season, and the total is 9-9 in their 18 games, including the Wild Card win. Buffalo went 5-3 on the road in the regular season.
The Bills offense ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per game (381.9), sixth in rushing, and ninth in passing. They are third in scoring at 28.4 ppg and first in scoring defense, allowing just 17 ppg. The defense also ranks first in total yards allowed per game (272.8) and first against the pass (163.1).
In the first matchup this season, Buffalo ran for 121 yards and passed for 315 with no turnovers. They also didn’t allow a sack and converted 5-of-11 third down chances. The defense pulled down two interceptions and also grabbed a pair of sacks.
Allen was spectacular in the Wild Card win over the Patriots, completing 21-of-25 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns. He threw for 4407 yards and ran for 763 in the regular season while accounting for 42 total touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Allen threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns at Arrowhead in October while also leading the team with 59 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Devin Singletary has taken over the top running back spot from Zack Moss, and he carried 16 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns last week. Singletary ran six times for 25 yards against Kansas City in October and finished the regular season with 870 yards and seven touchdowns.
Tight end Dawson Knox is a red zone machine with five catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns last week. Stefon Diggs had three catches for 60 yards while Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders also found the end zone against New England. Knox caught three passes for 117 yards against the Chiefs, and he scored a touchdown while Sanders caught two touchdown passes for 54 yards.
Mahomes Back in Form for Chiefs
The Chiefs are 9-9 ATS this season, and the over is 11-7 in their 18 games. They are 8-2 so far this season at Arrowhead Stadium, including the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh. One of their home losses came to the BIlls in October when they were favored by 2.5 but lost by 18.
The Chiefs offense ranks fourth in scoring (28.2 ppg), third in total yards (396.8), and fourth in passing (281.8). The defense is eighth in points allowed (21.4) but 27th against the pass (251.4) and 21st against the run (117.6).
Kansas City ran for 120 yards against Buffalo in October and threw for 272 but turned the ball over four times in the loss. They also converted just 5-of-12 third down chances and went 0-for-1 on fourth down.
Mahomes was back to his MVP performance last week against Pittsburgh with 404 yards and five touchdowns. In the regular season, he had 4,839 passing yards with 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Mahomes had two interceptions in the first matchup while attempting 54 passes for 272 yards and two scores.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out last week, Jerick McKinnon ran 12 times for 61 yards and also caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes led the team with 61 rushing yards in the first game against Buffalo, while Williams had 27 yards and McKinning had just one carry.
Travis Kelce had 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, while Tyreek Hill also found the end zone with 57 yards on five catches. Mecole Hardman caught four passes for 43 yards, and Demarcus Robinson had four for 76 yards. Hardman was the top receiver against Buffalo last time out with nine catches for 76 yards, while Hill had seven for 63 and Kelce had six for 57 with a touchdown.
Betting Analysis
- Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-110). Moneyline +100
- Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 (-110). Moneyline -120
- Total Points 54. Over -110. Under -110
The weather shouldn’t be a factor on Sunday, with a forecast of 35 degrees and no wind. The Bills have the advantage on defense, while the offenses seem to be a push. The points should be plentiful; the over is the play here.
Betting Pick: Over 54 points (-110)
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