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— Wednesday, February 16th Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Two of the top teams in the Big 12 go head-to-head on Wednesday night as the No. 7 Baylor Bears (21-4, 9-3) face the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (19-6, 8-4). Second place in the Big 12 is on the line as the Red Raiders go for the season sweep. Tip off is set for 9:00 p.m. ET at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas, and the game will air on ESPN2.
These teams met on January 11 in Waco, and Texas Tech won 65-62 over a then No. 1 ranked Baylor team. That win ended a four-game Baylor winning streak in the series, and the Bears have taken the last two in Lubbock. Baylor is 15-6 against the Red Raiders over the last ten years with a 6-4 mark on the road.
Baylor Big Man Goes Down
The Bears are 14-10-1 ATS this season, and the over is 13-11-1 in their 25 games. They are 9-2 away from home and 6-2 in true road games, winning at Kansas State by 15 last week. The Bears are coming off a 17-point blowout of Texas on Saturday but lost big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua to a knee injury.
Baylor ranks 39th in the nation at 77.9 ppg and 37th in shooting at 47.3%. Baylor ranks 30th in the nation in rebounding but will now be challenged with JTT out as they lose his 7.1 rpg. Defensively they are 27th in points allowed (62.2) and 40th against the 3-pointer at 30.2%.
LJ Cryer leads Baylor with 13.9 ppg while James Akinjo averages 13.1. Adam Flagler went for 20 points against Texas and now averages 13.0 on the season. Tchamwa Tchatchoua will miss the rest of the season, and Baylor will need to replace his 8.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and 68% shooting.
In the home loss to Texas Tech, Flagler and Akinjo both scored 17 points while Cryer had 10. Baylor was just 8-of-24 from the 3-point range and 8-of-13 from the free-throw line. They turned the ball over 14 times and allowed Tech to shoot better than 50% from the field.
Red Raiders Unbeaten at Home
The Red Raiders are 17-8 ATS this season, and the under is 13-12 in their 25 matchups. They have covered 11 of the last 13 games and are 15-0 at home this season. They are 5-3 against ranked teams and have already beaten both Baylor and Kansas in the battle for Big 12 supremacy.
Texas Tech ranks 17th defensively in points allowed (60.9), 13th in FG% (38.4), and 13th in rebounding. The offense struggles at times, ranking 111th in scoring (73.8) and 286th in 3-point shooting (31.8). However, they are 41st overall in shooting (47.1%) and shot the ball well at Baylor last month.
Five players on the Texas Tech squad are averaging at least 9.8 points per game, led by Bryson Williams at 13.4 ppg. Terrance Shannon Jr. at 11.6 ppg despite missing 11 games to injury. Kevin McCullar (10.8), Davion Warren (10.1), and Kevin Obanor (10.0) are also in double figures.
When Tech ended Baylor’s 21-game win streak in January, Shannon was out injured, and five players scored at least 11 points. Adonis Arms led the way with 14, while Williams and Obanor had 13 each. Tech had seven offensive rebounds in that game and shot 51% from the field on the road.
Betting Analysis
- Baylor Bears +2 (-110) Money Line +110
- Texas Tech -2 (-110) Money LIne -130
- Total: 135.5. Over -110. Under -110
Baylor will have to make adjustments without JTT down low, but they also didn’t rely on him too much for the scoring load. They scored just 59 points at Kansas and have struggled on the road against good teams. Look for Texas Tech to get off to a hot start and use the atmosphere to stay undefeated at home.
Betting Pick: Texas Tech -2 (-110)
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