The Baltimore Ravens have a forecast 60% chance to win against The Miami Dolphins with a spread of -1.5/1.5 and an over/under of 43.5. The Baltimore Ravens are 0 – 0 against The Miami Dolphins in the 2021-22 Season.
Thursday, November 11th Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Week 10 of the NFL season gets started with the AFC North leaders looking to extend their lead as the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) travel to face the Miami Dolphins (2-7). Quarterback Lamar Jackson is back in the thick of the MVP race for the Ravens, while Miami has a questionable quarterback situation.
Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, and the game will be televised by FOX and NFL Network.
These teams last met in 2019 in Miami, a 59-10 thrashing by the Ravens. Baltimore also beat the Dolphins 40-0 in 2017 and 38-6 in 2016. The last time the Dolphins beat the Ravens was in 2015, and Baltimore is 8-2 in the series since 2007.
Run Ravens, Run
The Ravens are just 3-5 against the spread this season, and the over is 5-3 in their eight games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games but are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as the favorite.
The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing yards at 161.6 per game and rank second overall in yardage at 427.6 ypg. They rank seventh in scoring at 27.6 points per game, and the defense is 21st, allowing 24.4 ppg.
On the season, Jackson has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,209 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has rushed for at least 50 yards in seven of eight games this season and went for 120 last Sunday against Minnesota. Jackson also threw for 266 yards last week with three touchdowns, but he did have two interceptions.
The run game has been a mess outside of Jackson, who has a team-leading 600 yards. Latavius Murray missed last week’s game with an injury but should be back on Thursday, and he has 212 yards with four touchdowns. Ty’Son Williams has 180 yards in six games, while Devonta Freeman has 188 yards in seven games.
Deep threat Marquise Brown has 46 catches on the season for 682 yards and six touchdowns. Tight end Mark Andrews has 42 catches for 560 yards and three touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 292 yards.
Offensive Issues for Dolphins
The Dolphins offense is dead last in the NFL in rushing at 75 yards per game, and they rank 30th in total yards and 297.4. Miami is scoring just 17.2 points per game while allowing 26.9 ppg, both stats ranking 28th in the league. The Dolphins defense is in the bottom three in the NFL in passing yards allowed (280.9) and total yards allowed (391.9).
Miami beat Houston on Sunday, 17-9, but they have scored 20 points or less on seven occasions this season. The Dolphins have just two games with 100 or more rushing yards this season, and they won last week despite having just 47 yards on the ground.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to make his sixth start of the season. He has completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,040 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. When he’s been out hurt, Jacoby Brissett has filled in with 1,127 yards in four games with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
Myles Gaskin has 313 rushing yards and one touchdown with an average of just 3.6 ypc. No other Miami player has more than 125 rushing yards, and Malcolm Brown is the only other running back with a touchdown.
Rookie Jaylen Waddle has 56 catches for 496 yards and three touchdowns as he’s been an added threat in the passing game each week. Tight end Mike Gesicki has 44 catches for 529 yards and two scores, while Gaskin has 37 catches and three receiving touchdowns.
Betting Analysis
- Baltimore Ravens -7 (-115). Money Line -320
- Miami Dolphins +7 (+105) Money Line +250
- Total Points: 46.5 Over -110. Under -110
The Ravens have struggled as a favorite this season, but they have played well on national television, including a win over Kansas City. They haven’t played on the road since October 3 and overall are 2-1 on the road this season. The Dolphins are 1-3 at home this season and have just one cover since September. Given their lack of offense, it is tough to see Miami keeping pack with Jackson and the Ravens.
Betting Pick: Ravens -7 (-115)
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