To avoid the sweep, the Braves will have to solve ace Jacob deGrom (3-2, 0.80), who takes the ball in primetime in his second start since coming off the IL. Atlanta has their own ace on the mound, with Max Fried (2-2, 4.63) getting the call against the Mets.
Braves Battling to Compete
After falling one win shy of the World Series in October, the Braves have quite the hangover in 2021. NL MVP Freddie Freeman is batting .239 while Marcell Ozuna got hurt on Tuesday, then arrested on battery charges Saturday. Ronald Acuna Jr. has struggled in May, and both Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies are batting below .240.
The Braves starting pitching has kept them afloat, with three starters posting ERA’s under 3.70, and they have combined for a 17-12 record. Closer Will Smith has eight saves but also four losses.
Fried has been more like himself in May after struggling out of the gate this season. After finishing top five in the Cy Young race last year, he posted an 11.45 ERA in April. Fried is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in four May starts with exactly one run allowed in each outing.
Last Sunday, he allowed just four hits over seven innings in a 7-1 win against the Pirates while striking out two. Two starts ago, he lost to the Mets 3-1 with one run allowed on five hits while striking out eight over six innings. Francisco Lindor is 1-for-7 against Fried while Dominic Smith is 0-for-4, and Jonathan Villar is 3-for-8.
Mets Mashing Despite Injuries
With all three outfielders and first baseman Pete Alonso on the IL, the Mets were supposed to take a big step back to the pack. However, the next-man-up routine has worked wonders, and the Mets clubbed five homers on Saturday night. Lindor, Villar, James McCann, Billy McKinney, and Brandon Drury all went deep in the blowout of the Braves.
McCann had a four-hit game while Lindor added two. Catcher Tomas Nido is batting .263 since joining the lineup, and he drove in two runs on Saturday night.
DeGrom came off the IL last week and threw five innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. He struck out nine and now has 74 punchouts in 45 innings this season. This will be deGrom’s first outing against the Braves in 2021.
The Braves have seen deGrom plenty through the years, with Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Inciarte, and Swanson all having at least 20 at-bats against the ace. Freeman is 13-for-48 (.271) with two homers, while Acuna is 8-for-25 (.320), but all the others are batting under .200.
Betting Analysis
Moneyline: Mets -116. Braves +108.
Run line: Mets -1.5 (+198). Braves +1.5 (-240)
Total: Over 6 (+100). Under 6 (-118)
You just can’t bet against deGrom these days with the numbers he puts up. The Braves lineup is struggling as a whole and now must adjust without Ozuna. The Mets didn’t do much damage against Fried earlier this month, but they are hitting the ball better now and should get the win on national TV.
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