Virginia Cavaliers will go into tonight’s NCAA Championship final against Texas Tech as favorites – but only by a whisker.
That’s because the money on Texas has been growing as the deadline for the game draws closer.
Here’s how two of New Jersey’s sportsbooks had them only hours before tonight’s start of College Basket’s big showpiece.
FanDuel’s money line odds stood at -120 against the Red Raiders +100. 888sport also had Texas at +100 (odds), but Virginia a shade higher at -130 (3-4).
There was a bigger difference in spread bets. FanDuel listed Virginia at -110/ -1.5 and Texas at -110/+1.5. 888sport had Virginia at -120/-1.5 and Texas at-109/+1.5
If March Madness betting holds up, it will be the fifth time this season Texas Tech have been underdogs.
The underdogs have kept winning
Yet each time they have won – and it might have a lot to do with one simple fact.
Regardless of the opinion of the New Jersey Sportsbooks, Texas has been 2019’s stand out NCAA basketball team.
For starters, they’ve won four of their five games by double-digits, including their 61-51 stunner against second seeds Michigan State.
Then there is their sterling defense, which led the US College KenPom.com ratings in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have restricted their opponents, to a pretty ordinary 55.8 points per game.
Cavaliers, who have never won the championship, also possess a strong defense, but it has not been as strong as the Texans’. Their rating in the KenPom in this category is 58.6.
The final could be a battle of strong defenses
And you might bear in mind if you are putting late money on the game that Virginia is perhaps a shade fortunate to be playing tonight.
Only a last-second basket kept their Elite Eight hopes alive against third seeds Purdue. Also the referee missed a double-dribble at the end of their win against Auburn.
Texas at the half is one bet that might be worth making. Under head coach Chris Beard, they have already covered nine consecutive second half spreads
One bet that is worth keeping in mind for the Championship Game is Texas Tech at the half. Under current head coach Chris Beard, the Red Raiders have now covered nine straight second half spreads.
Overall, they are 33-8-1 ATS against non-conference opponents on second-half spreads and 24-4 on the road or at a neutral venue.
The under-over totals of 118 being offered today by most New Jersey sportsbooks are extremely low. In fact if they stay at under 123.5 it will lower than at any time in the shot clock era
This is understandable, however. Texas Tech, a one-time NCAA Championship winner in 1966, and Virginia field two of the strongest defenses in the nation.