Media by Associated Press – New York Yankees Aaron Judge (99) runs on his single during the third inning in Game 2 of baseball’s American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees, Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
The Major League Baseball world is finally ready for a traditional and normal off-season for the first time in three years. The 2020 off-season and winter meetings were disrupted by COVID; then, the 2021 winter meetings were canceled, with the owners imposing a lockout. Players didn’t sign until March, right before this last season.
Now we are back to business as usual with GM meetings this week in Las Vegas. The Winter Meetings are next month in San Diego. Free agency officially begins Nov. 10 so let’s take a look at the top free agents, ready to command top dollar on the market.
Aaron Judge
The big prize of the free agent class is easily outfielder Aaron Judge. The American League home run record holder picked a great season to be on a contract year Judge has already turned down a seven-year deal worth around $215 million, or $30 M AAV, so teams will really have to bring their best deal.
Oddsmakers believe Judge stays with the Yankees when it is all said and done, as they are -175 to re-sign their outfielder. But his hometown San Francisco Giants are +300, and the deep-pocketed LA Dodgers (+450) are also lurking. Rivals of the Yankees would love nothing better than to steal Judge away with the NY Mets at +1000 and the Boston Red Sox at +1500.
Judge just turned in a .311/.425/.686 season with 62 homers and 131 RBI with an 11.4 WAR. That is a season that only Barry Bonds has had in the history of the game. The Yankees are, of course, hoping to get a deal done quickly. But Judge could drag things out through the off-season and into February before picking his next destination.
The Shortstops
Need a shortstop? Well, this is the off-season for you. Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract this week, and Carlos Correa did so last week. The duo join Trea Turner on a very crowded free agent list for shortstops this off-season.
Turner will probably get the longest and richest deal of the trio. The 30-year-old should pull down at least $30 M AAV as he trails only Judge in WAR over the last three seasons. In that same span, he is second in batting average and third in steals while also turning in a .516 slugging percentage.
Correa is 28 and bet on himself last season with a late deal with the Minnesota Twins that provided an opt-out this winter. The defense isn’t as great with Correa, and he struggled with injuries from 2017-19. But he was a big reason why the Astros were so good in the playoffs, and he hit .291 with 22 homers in Minnesota this season.
Bogaerts, 30, is likely a future third baseman, but he leads all available shortstops in games played and WAR since 2016, and he brings plus power and contact skills. A career .292 hitter, Bogaerts has 72 doubles, 38 homers, and 152 RBI in the last two seasons.
The Red Sox and Cardinals need shortstops. So do the Twins and Dodgers if they don’t keep Correa and Turner. Dansby Swanson is another option, and the Braves and Giants could be in the mix as well at a busy position this winter.
The Pitchers
The first big name to come off the board was Mets closer Edwin Diaz, who resigned to stay in Queens for the long haul. The Mets have another big free agent in Jacob deGrom, and World Series champion Justin Verlander is also a free agent in Houston. Those two starters are very different in length of the contract, but AAV should be similar.
The problem with both deGrom and Verlander has been injuries. When healthy, deGrom is the best in the business, but how far are teams willing to go for a pitcher who hasn’t been able to top 100 innings since 2019? The AAV may be a record breaker, in the 40M plus range for a 35-year-old with a career 2.52 ERA and 10.9 K/9 IP.
Verlander is 40, but he’s about to win a third Cy Young award and just won a World Series as well. Expect a two-year deal here or maybe a one-year with an option. The question is if he gives Houston a discount or goes to the open market for $35 – 40 M AAV as he closes in on 250 career wins and the top 10 career strikeout list.
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