Media by Associated Press – New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
As long as he stays healthy down the stretch, the American League MVP belongs to Aaron Judge. Dual threat superstar Shohei Ohtani has a slight chance to catch him and repeat as the award winner, but his team’s record hurts those chances. Here is a look at the top three American League MVP candidates, their odds, and their chances to win the award.
Heading into the final quarter of the Major League Baseball season, Judge is still the clear MVP favorite at -650. Ohtani, the reigning MVP, is +450 and has been coming on strong over the summer. After those two, the odds really drop off to Houston’s Yordan Alvarez at +5000 and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez at +6000.
Judge is the Favorite
The 2022 season has been all about Judge and his home runs. With a MLB leading 46 home runs through 116 games, he is on pace for 64, which would be a new American League record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been running away with the AL East all season and still have a 10-game lead with a 72-44 record.
At this point in the season, it is easier to find a category where Judge doesn’t lead the American League. He’s tops in WAR (7.0), slugging (.674), runs (96), RBI (100), walks (66), total bases (283), and extra base hits (65).
With 46 games remaining, he needs just six homers and 14 RBI to set new career highs, and he’s on target for his first-ever .300 batting average season. He is equal opportunity as well, batting .306 with a .679 slugging against righties and .285 with a .661 slugging against lefties. Judge is batting .308 with 25 homers and a .697 slugging at home while hitting .292 with 21 homers and a .651 slugging on the road.
Even with the Yankees slumping to start August with a 3-10 record, Judge is batting .325 with a .700 slugging in his first 12 games this month. At this point, only a prolonged slump in September will keep Judge from being the first Yankees MVP since Alex Rodriguez in 2007.
Ohtani Does It All
The reigning MVP continues to raise the bar as Ohtani pitches and hits to help the Angels. His power numbers are a little down from last year, but he is still on pace for a 35 homer, 95 RBI season while batting .254.
On the mound, Ohtani already has a career-high in wins and strikeouts and should surpass last year’s innings tally of 130. The ERA is a half run better than last year, but his losses are also up with the Angels struggling as a team. In fact, that may be what holds Ohtani back this year, that the Angels didn’t live up to expectations and will finish below .500
Ohtani ranks second in the AL behind Judge in WAR at 5.8. Hitting-wise, he leads the league in intentional walks (12), ranks fifth in homers (26), sixth in RBI (68), 10th in slugging (.496), and sixth in total bases (207( and ninth in runs scored (64).
As a pitcher, Ohtani leads the AL in strikeouts per nine innings (12.7), ranks third in strikeouts (165), sixth in ERA (2.69), and eighth in wins (10).
Alvarez on the Outside Looking In
It is hard to imagine anyone besides Judge or Ohtani lifting this award for 2022. If anyone can crash the party, it is Houston Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez. With Houston streaking past the Yankees in the standings for the best record in the American League, Alvarez gets his chance.
He trails Judge in all the major categories, hitting .296 with 31 homers and 85 RBI. He ranks fourth in the AL in WAR (4.8), second in home runs (31), slugging (.620), and runs scored (74), and fourth in RBI (75). With 59 walks, Alvarez leads the AL in on-base percentage at .400 and ranks second to Judge in OPS of 1.020.
Outside of an injury to Judge, it is going to be impossible for Alvarez to overtake the Yankees slugger to win the MVP. Even if the Astros hold onto the best record, the gap of +5000 odds is just too much to make up this late in the season.
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