Punters hoping to make a substantial profit on Japan at the Rugby World Cup will be disappointed.
The high-flying Brave Blossom were shown the exit door Sunday when they were out-muscled by brawny South Africa.
After their unexpected pool victories over highly-rated Ireland and Scotland, Japan had entered the weekend’s quarter finals unbeaten. And it was no fluke. They did it playing some of the slickest swashbuckling rugby of the tournament.
Even Rassie Erasmus, head coach of South Africa, admitted to being nervous before the game. And this was not without good reason. The Springboks had thumped Japan in a pre-World Cup friendly, but the Brave Blossoms had climbed a mountain since then.
In the minds of many they now posed a major danger to South Africa’s hopes of winning a third World Cup.
New Jersey’s bookies, however, were not convinced. Heading into the quarters, their odds on Japan winning the world Cup was 40/1 as against South Africa’s 7/2.
For most of a tense first half these odds looked as if they were going to be costly for the bookies
Japan only trailed 5-3 at halftime
Japan trailed 5-3 at halftime, but with Springbok scrumhalf Fafa de Klerk kicking away too much possession, Japan were in fact unlucky not to be leading. Certainly they had done most of the attacking.
South Africa’s sterling defense was all that was thwarting their world Cup dreams and when the Boks began holding on to the ball and using their powerful pack to slowly grind them down in the scrums and mauls, the home nations fell silent. The writing was on the wall and they could see it. Japan eventually succumbed 26-3 without scoring a try.
A year or so ago Ireland beat New Zealand and were briefly crowned as the World’s No 1 rugby nation. They never came near to doing it again in one of Saturday’s two quarter finals. They were crushed 46-15 as New Zealand powered on to their hoped-for World Cup hat-trick.
New Zealand, who next play England in one of this week’s semi-finals remain the hot favorites to again carry off the William Web-Ells pot of gold. New Jersey Sports books like FanDuel are now quoting odds of -135 on them winning. South Africa remains the second favorites at +300.
England who next faces the daunting task of stopping the New Zealand juggernaut is at +430. And Wales who now faces South Africa in the weekend’s other semi-final are at a distant +850.
Wales are rightly last in line. They’ve been the least impressive of the four semi-finalists. In fact they can count themselves lucky to have edged France 20-19 on Sunday.
For one thing, thanks to a mindless vicious elbow into the face of Welshman Aaron Wainwright by Tricolors lock Sebastian Vahaamahina, France had to play the second half with only 14-men. And in a hard-fought game at this level, that’s a huge disadvantage.
Wales awarded highly controversial winning try
Worse still for them, Wales were awarded the winning try in the dying moments after a highly controversial decision by SA referee Jaco Pyper and his TV assistant. They ruled the try good in the face of heated criticism. Many neutral observers believed the ball had gone forwards from a maul before the try was scored.
South Africa’s Erasmus won’t mind. On current form, South Africa should be happy they are playing Wales and not France. And I’m sure Steve Hanson would have preferred his charges to have played Wales rather than England.
After the way they clinically demolished Australia (40-16) in last weekend’s 4th quarter final, England shouldn’t be written off.
Their pack looks good enough to hold their own against both New Zealand and South Africa. Their backs look better and more efficient than South Africa’s.
And with rugby wise coach Eddie Jones in charge of their coaching team, anything is possible. Don’t be surprised if England comes up with a defense and counter-attack that nullifies New Zealand’s explosive backline. South Africa has already done it on two occasions in the past couple of seasons.
What Does all this mean?
What does all this mean for those New Jersey punters who enjoy betting on rugby?
It means, I believe, that the race for the 2019 World Cup is a lot closer than the bookies odds will have you think. Anyone of New Zealand, South Africa or England could win it.
If you haven’t already laid futures bets on the likely winner England at +430 may be your best bet right now.
If New Zealand and South Africa win their semi-finals the odds on them winning the Cup shouldn’t change too much. They can’t very well get too much lower than they already are.
If, however, England beat New Zealand and establish themselves as the new World Cup favorites the current odds of +450 on them could sink into minus figures.
In the meantime here are the match odds for the up-coming semi-finals. They are already reflecting the new respect there is for England:
FANDUEL:
New Zealand -270 vs. England -260
South Africa -280 vs. Wales +250
RESORTS ONLINE:
NZ -125 vs. England -105
South Africa -300 vs. Wales +270
888SPORT:
New Zealand -278 vs. England +215
South Africa -360 vs. Wales +260