The Cubs are 6-1 against the Cardinals this season, including 4-0 at Wrigley Field. The over has hit in four of the seven games, including three-of-four at Wrigley. St. Louis sends lefty Kyung-Hyun Kim (3-5, 3.39) to the mound Saturday against Chicago right-hander Zach Davies (5-5, 4.28)
Cardinals Offense Has Been Abysmal
The Cardinals offense ranks 27th in MLB at 4.09 runs per nine innings, 26th in batting average (.229), 25th in OPS (.678), and 23rd in HR/Game (1.06). Their pitching staff leads the league in walks with at least 30 more than every other team. The hurlers also rank 29th in strikeouts at 8.01 per game.
The Cardinals surprisingly took two of three in San Francisco this week after losing five straight road series. St. Louis is 20-28 on the road this season, 4-15 since May 30. The Cardinals are 40-42-5 ATS.
Kim takes the ball for the 15th time this season, and the Cardinals are 8-6 in his starts. The over has hit in eight of his 14 starts. Kim is 1-4 with a 3.51 ERA on the road and 1-3 with a 3.71 ERA in night games. Javy Baez and Kris Bryant are both 1-for-2 against Kim while Ian Happ took him deep last August.
Last time out, he beat the Giants 5-3 on Monday with seven shutout innings in which Kim allowed just three runs and struck out two. He has not allowed a home run in his last three starts and has allowed just one earned run in his last 12 innings.
Cubs Limping Toward Break
Chicago has lost 12 of the last 14 games and ended an 11-game slide with an 8-3 win over Philadelphia on Wednesday. They are 35-48-5 ATS this season but 28-16 overall at Wrigley Field. The Cubs offense ranks 27th in the league on average (.227), but they do have power with 1.33 home runs per game which rank sixth.
They got the bats going Friday with three runs in the first inning and 10 overall against the Cardinals. Patrick Wisdom and Joc Pederson each had multi-hit games as Wisdom homered, Pederson doubled twice, and the duo combined for five RBI.
The Cubs are 10-8 in games started by Davies, and the under has hit in 10 of his starts. Davies is 3-2 at home with a 4.10 ERA this season and 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA at night. Matt Carpenter has three career homers and a .462 average against Davies, while Harrison Bader and Nolan Arenado have also taken the righty deep.
Davies lost to Philadelphia 13-3 on Monday, allowing two runs on four hits over five innings. He surrendered two homers for the second straight home start. Davies beat the Cardinals 2-0 on June 13 with 6 ⅔ shutout innings as he allowed two hits and struck out six.
Betting Analysis
- Cubs ML -125. Run line -1.5 (+160)
- Cardinals ML +105. Run line +1.5 (-200)
- Total – 7 runs. Over -100, Under -120,
The over is 2-0-1 in Kim’s last three starts and 4-0 in the Cubs’ last four games overall. However, the over hasn’t hit in the last four games in which Saturday’s umpire Alfonso Marquez has been behind the plate, and those outings have averaged 6.1 runs per game. The weather could be an issue as well, with rain in the forecast on Saturday.
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