The week between the conference title games and the Super Bowl can be dull, with or without the Pro Bowl. But that is not the case in 2021 as the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams swapped former No. 1 overall draft pick quarterbacks on Saturday night in a deal that also included multiple future draft picks. The league year doesn’t start until March 17, when this deal will become official.
What the Rams Get
The Rams get quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions all-time leader in every single passing category. The 32-year-old ranks 16th all-time in passing yards (45,100), 21st in passer rating (89.9), 16th in touchdowns (282), and 14th in completions (3,898). He also has 144 career interceptions and a 0-3 record in the playoffs, while the Lions never won the NFC North in his tenure.
Stafford was the first overall selection of the 2009 draft out of the University of Georgia and started 136 consecutive games before missing the final eight games of the 2019 season with a back injury. The Lions were 5-11 in 2020 and recently hired a new general manager (Brad Holmes) and a new head coach (Dan Campbell) looking to take the team in a new direction. Stafford completed 64.2% of his passes in 2020 with 4,084 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
What the Lions Get
The Lions get quarterback Jared Goff, the first overall selection of the 2016 draft, and multiple future draft picks. Detroit adds a third-round pick in the upcoming 2021 draft along with first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. The Rams do not have a first-round pick in 2021 as the pick was traded to Jacksonville last year in the Jalen Ramsey deal.
Goff went 9-6 in 15 regular-season starts in 2020 with 3,952 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In 2019 he had 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with 4,638 yards while leading the Rams to a 9-7 record. Goff is 3-3 in six career playoff games, and he threw for 174 yards with a touchdown in the Divisional Round loss to the Green Bay Packers earlier this month.
Goff led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, where they lost to the New England Patriots 13-3. In both 2017 and 2018, the Rams were the top-scoring team in the league, but they fell back to back in 2019 and 2020. Goff ranks second in the NFL in turnovers the last two seasons with 38.
Before the 2019 season, the Rams gave Goff a four-year, $134 million extension with $110 million guaranteed. Goff went 42-27 in four seasons under Rams coach Sean McVay after losing all seven of his starts as a rookie under Jeff Fisher.
Odds Impact
The trade had an immediate impact on futures odds as well. The Rams were listed on William Hill at +1800 to win next season’s Super Bowl before the deal. Those odds moved to +1400 after the deal behind the Kansas Chiefs (+500), Green Bay Packers (+850), Buffalo Bills/Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000), and Seattle Seahawks/Baltimore Ravens (+1200). They also moved from +1000 to win the NFC to +700, behind the Packers (+425), Buccaneers (+500), and Seahawks (+600).
The Lions dropped from +7500 to +12500 with Goff replacing Stafford. They are now tied with the New York Jets for the worst odds to win next year’s Super Bowl. The Lions have the worst odds to win the NFC at +6000, with the next worst odds belonging to the New York Giants at +3500.
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