Media by Associated Press – Georgia running back Daijun Edwards (30) takes a hand off from quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) while Mississippi State defensive tackle Nathan Pickering (22) pursues in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022. Georgia won 45-19. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
The two College Football Playoff semifinals are set for Saturday with the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl. Up first at 4:00 p.m. ET on New Year’s Eve is the Fiesta Bowl featuring No. 2 Michigan (13-0) against No. 3 TCU (12-1). The nightcap is the Peach Bowl, with No. 1 Georgia (13-0) facing No. 4 Ohio State (11-1) with an 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
Michigan is the bigger favorite, as they are laying 7.5 points against TCU in the opener. The Peach Bowl has Georgia favored by 6.5 points. The Fiesta Bowl has an over/under of 58.5, while the Peach Bowl has a total of 62 points.
Fiesta Bowl
Michigan completed their undefeated regular season with a Big Ten title, while TCU lost the Big 12 title to Kansas State but still made the playoffs. This game will come down to tempo as Michigan will look to run the ball while TCU will put the ball in the very capable hands of quarterback Max Duggan.
Michigan will be without running back Blake Corum, who injured his knee late in the season. Without his services, Donovan Edwards ran for 185 yards, and a touchdown in the Big Ten Championship Game as Michigan piled up 225 yards on the ground. Edwards also had 216 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Ohio State after Corum was injured.
On the flip side, Duggan took over the TCU quarterback job in September and ended up as the Heisman runner-up. He threw for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns while rushing for 404 yards and six touchdowns. While running back Kendre Miller ran for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns, Quentin Johnston had 903 yards and five receiving scores.
TCU hasn’t faced a defense like Michigan’s this season. The Wolverines rank in the top five in the nation in yards allowed, yards per play, and scoring defense. Only Ohio State and Purdue topped 400 yards against Michigan, and both did it primarily through the air, which gives the Horned Frogs hope.
Michigan will take their deep shots with J.J. McCarthy, but their path to the championship game is on the ground and with their defense. If Edwards can break the big plays as he did against Ohio State and Purdue, Michigan will cover the spread and cruise into the title game after falling short last year.
Peach Bowl
Ohio State gets a second chance as the only playoff team not to play for a conference championship this season. Their reward is a meeting with the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs who have won 15 games in a row and 31 of their last 32. To make it even more difficult, the game is pretty much on the Bulldogs’ home turf in Atlanta.
Georgia has lost just three times in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, once to LSU in 2019 and twice in Alabama (2017, 2021). The last time they played in the stadium was their last game, a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Stetson Bennett threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns in the win and has 3,425 yards on the season.
Georgia’s defense has allowed just 12.8 ppg on the season, and they hold teams to 77 rushing yards per game. Georgia has 26 sacks on the season, ten interceptions, and seven forced fumbles. They did give up over 500 passing yards to LSU in the SEC Championship Game but held Tennessee and Oregon to under 200 yards earlier this season.
On offense, Georgia spreads the ball around with three running backs over 500 yards on the season, led by Kenny McIntosh with 709 yards and ten touchdowns. Wideout Ladd McConkey has great chemistry with Bennett, with five touchdowns and 675 yards. Both numbers trail tight end Brock Bowers, who leads UGA with 52 catches for 726 yards and six touchdowns.
The Buckeyes run through C.J. Stroud, who has 3,340 yards on the season and 37 passing touchdowns. Running back Miyan Williams has 13 touchdowns and 816 yards, and the Buckeyes have dominant wideouts even without Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Marvin Harrison Jr. has 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Emeka Egbuka has 1,039 yards and nine scores.
Ohio State was susceptible to big plays on defense this season, and that did them in against Michigan. Georgia turned the ball over 16 times this season, and the Buckeyes will need to steal a possession or two and not allow the short drives for scores. On offense, Ohio State will need their own big plays, or else Georgia covers with ease.
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