Media by Associated Press – Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, middle, runs against the Tennessee Titans during the second half of an NFL football game in Inglewood, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
The final game of the NFL Week 16 comes on the day after Christmas as the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the Indianapolis Colts for a showdown on ESPN. This game, at Lucas Oil Stadium, features a Chargers team looking to solidify their playoff position against a Colts team that is an absolute mess in just about every fashion.
Let’s take a look at three bets to make for Monday Night Football between the Chargers and Colts in Week 16.
Colts Under 20.5 Points (-130)
The Colts were successful last week in the first half because the Vikings kept giving the ball away and giving them a short field. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown made it 10-0, and a Dalvin Cook fumble led to another score for a 17-0 lead. The Vikings then turned it over on downs twice, and Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six as the Colts built a 30-0 lead.
They scored 27 of their first 30 points off turnovers and the Vikings turning it over on downs. They can’t count on that from a Chargers team that has exactly one turnover per game this season and a +3 turnover margin. The Colts are -12 on the turnover margin for the season, and not all of that can be blamed on Matt Ryan, as they also have 13 fumbles lost.
The Colts’ offense will now be in the hands of Nick Foles, who last started exactly a year ago. Superstar running back Jonathan Taylor is out for the season, leaving Deon Jackson and Zack Moss to share running back duties. Jackson has 191 yards on the season and one touchdown, while Moss has 203 yards between the Bills and Colts with no touchdowns.
The Chargers’ defense has held the Dolphins and Titans to a combined 34 points in the last two weeks. Indianapolis has scored 21 points or less 11 times this season; look for Monday to be their 12th.
Ekeler Anytime Touchdown (-170)
Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has scored a rushing touchdown in two straight games, and he’s scored overall in three of the last four contests.
On the season, he has nine rushing and five receiving touchdowns to rank among the league leaders in overall scores with 14. He has found the end zone in nine of the last 11 Chargers games and has been responsible for multiple scores in four games.
He has only faced the Colts once, in 2019, and he scored a touchdown in that game with 58 rushing yards. The Colts rank 28th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed, and they give up the fifth most receptions to running backs in the league. Both of those numbers help tilt this pick in Ekeler’s favor.
Chargers -4 (-110)
The Chargers are battling for an AFC playoff spot at 8-6, while the Colts were officially eliminated from the playoffs on Thursday night. Los Angeles has won two of the last three matchups against the Colts, and they are 8-5-1 ATS this season. The Colts are 6-8 ATS and 2-4 overall at home.
The Chargers’ defense gets Derwin James back, and they are going to make things difficult on the Colts all game long. Indianapolis doesn’t have their starting running back, the offensive line has been a mess all season, and now they have Foles back there in his first start in 12 months.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ offense has been doing just enough to win games lately. Justin Herbert’s numbers are strong, with 4,019 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards and should be able to move the ball all night on the Colts.
Look for the Chargers to go into Lucas Oil and win this game by a touchdown.
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