The Rugby World Cup semi-finals have seen New Jersey sports bookmakers do an abrupt about face – and not unexpectedly.
After the pool games and leading up to the semi-finals South Africa were the second favourites to reigning champions New Zealand with England third.
Wales were a distance 4th after their lucky quarter-final escape against France.
This is no longer the case. Not after the mighty All Blacks were comprehensively vanquished by England in Saturday’s first semi-final.
Against this the Springboks were only just able to squeeze home against Wales with a last-gasp penalty conversion in Sunday’s second semi-final.
And the upshot of these unexpected turns, both at the Yokohama Stadium, is that England is now the new World Cup favorite.
England favorite at -182
FanDuel, New Jersey’s current sportsbook market leader, had the Brits at -182 in American odds on Monday as against +176 for South Africa.
Resorts Casino’s online odds were close at -195 to +190 but 888Sports were a bit distant at -230 for England and +176 for South Africa.
BetMGM favored the Englishman at decimal odds of 1.53 to the Boks 2.68.
Surprisingly British-based William Hill did not seem to be offering wagers on the Rugby World Cup final. However, of the State’s 16 other online sportbooks that were doing so, all favored England.
Meanwhile, three-time champions NZ whose hopes for a first World Cup hat-trick were dashed, now play Wales for third place.
The match nobody wants to play in is set down for Friday and New Zealand are once more overwhelming favorites. FanDuel had them at -850 to +650 for Wales, Resorts at -945 and +675 respectively.
All Blacks showed the first sign that their form may be slipping and age catching up with some senor players earlier this year. This was when they lost their southern hemisphere Rugby Championship to South Africa.
The Brits bounced back
They did bounce back to beat the Springboks in their first pool game, but they came out of the game looking vulnerable. And this especially against the physical, grinding, defense-dominated rugby of the kind the Springboks had brought to Japan.
England’s Australian coach Eddie Jones is as wide-wake s they come. So too is his defense coach John Mitchell, a former NZ player and coach who knows Kiwi rugby as well as anyone.
Well between the two they came up with game plan that completely shut-down the celebrated NZ running game. The All Blacks scored one converted try in the 7-19 defeat, but that was it.
For the rest of the time the tough English pack dominated both the tight and loose phases of the forward battle to keep the Kiwis on their back foot.
The English backs meanwhile stonewalled the NZ backs with a water-tight defense. They also used their kicking skills ah-la South Africa to keep NZ penned in their own half.
Then when they had the opportunity to score, they grabbed it, be it via a try or a penalty. The tactic worked beyond the dreams of their huge fan base in Japan. New Zealand were never able to get into the game.
The big question now as the all important final looms up with South Africa seeking a 3rd World Cup title and England a second is this: Will England keep this game plan against the Springboks who practically invented it.
Wales won four in a row, but lost No 5
Wales, who had beaten the Boks in all four tests played between the 2015 World Cup and this one, tried and failed with it.
In the end South Africa won this dour, but ultra-tense battle when Pollard coolly nailed a medium-length penalty four minutes from time. It took the final score to 19-16, unfortunately for long-time Welsh head coach Warren Gatland. His team landed up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
And while the margin of their defeat was small, the consequences of it were huge. Coming so close but not close enough to a long-time dream always is – and especially for Gatland.
He won this year’s Five Nations with Wales. He was hoping to return to home nation New Zealand to a new coaching position with a first Welsh World Cup triumph. It didn’t happen.
Both teams scored a try apiece. But with territorial advantage South Africa’s Handre Pollard was able to boot over four penalties to the Welshmen’s three.
So now to the biggest match of all at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. We can be pretty sure South Africa’s Rassie Erasmus will stick to the game plan that has lifted South Africa so quickly since his return from Ireland.
They’ll bring out the sturdy fortress that defends their line. They’ll use the boots of halfbacks De Klerk and Pollard and while they’ll try to grab every scoring opportunity that comes their way, they keep their game pretty risk free.
England’s pack was fiercer, stronger
England did this against New Zealand and were able to succeed because their pack was fiercer and stronger, especially at the breakdown.
They are not likely to be as successful against the equally tough and perhaps larger and heavier South African eight. So where do Jones and Mitchell go from there?
To be sure, the first-ever Rugby World Cup final in Asia is going to be a battle of wits as much as a battle of brawn. The prospect is mouth watering, but picking the winner will not be easy.
If the two packs neutralize each other as is possible, it might come down to which of the two backline is most effective.
South Africa has plenty of pace on the wings and are big and solid in the midfield, but will it be enough to match the slicker, more coordinated English backs. Its rugby’s most intriguing question right now and, I’m sure, the punter’s too.
Do they go for the bookies’ favorite or the better odds on the underdogs? I’m going for England – but conservatively.