Media by Associated Press – Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) cuts to the outside during an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)
Week 12 of the NFL season ends with an AFC battle on Monday Night as the Indianapolis Colts host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are in transition, with the Colts changing coaches and the Steelers changing quarterbacks. They are also both in desperate need of a win to stay in the playoff race as the Colts are 4-6-1 and the Steelers 3-7 with the last playoff spot sitting at 6-4.
Let’s take a look at the three best bets to make for Monday Night’s game on ESPN.
Colts -2.5 (-115)
The Indianapolis Colts have definitely looked different since Jeff Saturday took over for Frank Reich. They knocked off the Raiders on the road 25-20 and then led the Philadelphia Eagles for most of the game before losing by one. Matt Ryan has topped 200 yards passing in both games, and the offensive line is playing better with a former center in charge.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have allowed 35 and 37 points in two of the last three games. They are 1-3 in the last four games, and even with TJ Watt back, they struggled on defense last week with only two sacks and 37 points allowed.
The Steelers’ offense ranks 27th in total yards and 28th in offense. The Colts’ defense has been great all season, allowing just 20 points and 305 yards per game, both ranking in the top 10 in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s defense is seventh against the run but 31st against the pass, which the Colts should be able to exploit.
Turnovers will be key on Monday night. The Colts avoided those the last two weeks, but they have the most turnovers in the NFL this season. With a healthy Jonathan Taylor and Ryan back under center, look for the Colts to cover on Monday night.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Since returning to the lineup, Taylor has 392 yards in four games, and he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Taylor has a rushing touchdown in two straight games, and though the Steelers are better against the run than the pass, the Colts will use Taylor in the red zone.
Taylor scored two touchdowns against the Steelers in the 2020 season with 74 yards on 18 carries. He scored 18 touchdowns last year to lead the NFL and has a nose for the end zone. If the Colts are going to win this game, they have to control the clock on the ground and need their best players to find the end zone against the Steelers’ defense.
Pat Freiermuth Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Freiermuth has led the Steelers in targets in each of the last four games, with a total of 35 targets in those games. He has hauled in 24 of those catches with a pair of eight reception games. The big tight end hasn’t found the end zone during that stretch, but he has roamed the middle of the field as favorite target of Kenny Pickett.
In three of the last four games, Freiermuth has topped 55 yards, and last week he had a season-high eight receptions for 79 yards. Najee Harris has struggled in his second season, and the Steelers have been quick to abandon the run game.
They have also fallen behind early this season and had to pass more, which means the game script leans on Freiermuth with all their young, inexperienced receivers and Pickett.
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