Contrasting results in two of sports biggest events of the weekend underlined just how unpredictable sports betting can be.
The fact that favorites don’t always win and outsiders too often do, makes it both risky and exciting.
One result, in a title fight between two world boxing champions, was desperately close. The favorite won, yes, but only at the end of a bruising, hard-fought battle. It eventually had to be decided by a 2-to-1 vote of the three judges.
In the other, the British Open golf championship, an outsider nobody expected to prevail, destroyed the field.
He won by six shots after one of the strongest favorites blew up at the first and then missed the cut.
The winning boxer was Manny Pacquiao, a 12-time World Champion in eight different divisions.
Pacquiao won on points in a split-decision verdict
This time he claimed the WBA welterweight title, his thirteenth, with a split-decision win against unbeaten champion Keith Thurman.
The fight took place in Las Vegas on Saturday night with the pre-fight odds on him being around -152. For Thurman, who two weeks earlier had himself been the favorite, they were sitting on +125.
So yes, favorites do win, but then again, not always. Northern Island World No 3 Rory McIlroy was strongly favored to win the 148th Open Championship. And this not only because it was the first occasion it was to be played on his home soil in 68 years.
Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland also happened to be one of his favorite courses. It was where he set a course record of 62 when he was a skinny 16-year-old.
Heading into last Thursday’s tee-off, he was carrying odds with most New Jersey bookmakers of around +800. World No 1 Brooks Koepka was also on +800 at that time – and why not. He’d already won one 2019 major, the PGA Championship, and finished 2nd in the other two, the Masters and the US Open.
The eventual winner, to the surprise of most and the great joy of all Irishmen, be they Brits or Republicans, was Shane Lowry.
Lowry won the Irish Open as an amateur
The Bearded Republican Irishman is a solid professional who won the Irish Open as an amateur. He had also won five other international titles. They included the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in 2015 and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in January this year.
But for Royal Portrush, at around +7000 he was out of sight on pre-tournament betting lists.
Neither the punters nor the bookies were to know, of course, that the big-hitting, in-form McIlroy would hit his very first drive out-of-bounds. Worse still; on returning to the tee he would hit his next shot into some horrible rough at least half-a-body high.
His next shot did no better and after an eight on his 1st hole, he was already four shots over par. He never recovered and was left teary-eyed as a dream turned into a nightmare and he missed the cut.
Koepke, meanwhile, did better; a lot better. But he never really came to terms with the greens and the nasty, wind-blown conditions in the final round.
He shot what was a relatively standard 3-over 74 for the day and managed a joint 4th-place with Lee Westwood.
Koepke has an exceptional record in the majors
A win, two 2nds and a 4th in the year’s four majors is an exceptional record by anyone standards. He was disappointed, however, that he hadn’t picked up another title or “at least another second place.”
Lowry, meanwhile, was over the moon and couldn’t stop smiling after his masterful performance. No one got near to taming the Portrush links the way he did in the third round.
After posting two 67’s he came out on Saturday and powered past the early leaders with a stunning 63. It set a new course record as changes to the course had nullified McElroy’s 62.
The big question now was could Lowry hold onto the lead under the huge pressure he would be under in the final round.
The weather forecast was grim. He would have to play the final round in rain and strong winds. In these conditions, one bad shot could be disastrous. Furthermore, players like Koepke and Tommy Fleetwood, who finished second, would be going all out to put pressure on him.
The bookies didn’t see him folding
The bookies didn’t see him folding. From those pre-tournament odds of about 70-1, he suddenly became the 8/15 favorite after his third round heroics. And did he not live up to them!
On a day when the 30-odd birdies posted couldn’t even begin to match the 100s of bogies made, he held his nerve brilliantly. He dropped just one shot in his 72 and made so few mistakes he was able to stretch his Saturday lead from four to six on Sunday.
It was the largest margin of victory in any major in five years. It was also the largest in an Open Championship since Louis Oosthuizen’s 7-stroke triumph way back in 2010.
It makes betting men think, doesn’t it? A week ago Lowry was a slightly tubby 70/1 shot. Today he is the 148th Open Champion and the new Royal Portrush record holder. He is also just over $2.9 million richer.
