Media by Associated Press – Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) tosses a pass during warmups prior to an NCAA college football game against Mississippi State in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022. Georgia won 45-19. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff betting odds are changing in college football. As the conference title picture clears up and spots are clinched, schedules are known, and the oddsmakers have adjusted. Here are the top four favorites to win the NCAA College Football Playoff.
Georgia -120
Before beating Florida and Tennessee, Georgia had the same odds to win the title as Ohio State. The Bulldogs have gone from +180 on October 25 to -120 after blowing out the Gators and taking care of business at home against the Vols.
Georgia now faces a struggling Kentucky team that just lost at home to Vanderbilt before hosting rivals Georgia Tech next Saturday. The Bulldogs should head into the SEC Championship Game ranked No. 1 with a 12-0 record as they face LSU in Atlanta on December 3.
Georgia is seemingly a lock for the playoffs; even if they were to drop one game, they would still be ahead of Tennessee with the head-to-head win. The defending champs haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since October 1, and they have scored at least 42 in four of the last five games. The Bulldogs will be the No. 1 seed if they win out and are in a good position to defend their title in January.
Ohio State +240
The No. 2 Buckeyes are next in line to win the title with +240 odds. Ohio State could make the playoff even without winning the Big Ten if everyone else also has a loss.
Not to look past this week’s trip to Maryland, but it all comes down to beating Michigan next Saturday. If the Buckeyes do that at home, they should be the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, with the top spot in play if Georgia loses to LSU.
The Big Ten Championship Game will pit Ohio State against a team they are probably going to be 24-30 point favorites against. The West champ, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin, will have at least three conference losses on the season and won’t pose much of a threat.
There is a lot to like about what C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes offense have done. If they stay healthy and beat Michigan, a Bulldogs/Buckeyes title game could be an instant classic.
Michigan +700
The other side of that Big Ten coin is Michigan. The Wolverines are +800 and will be underdogs going into the Horseshoe Thanksgiving weekend. But they finally got past Ohio State last year and made it to the playoffs.
Before going to Columbus, Michigan will host Illinois this weekend. The Illini were having a dream season, but the wheels fell off in November with home losses to Michigan State and Purdue. Michigan can nearly end Illinois’ hopes of a Big Ten Championship Game appearance with a win.
The Wolverines haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since September, and they have topped 30 in all but two games this season. A Big Ten title will give Michigan either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and this line will plummet, so if you like them to beat OSU, take it now.
Tennessee +1200
The waiting game is going to be difficult for Tennessee. Right now, they are No. 5 in the CFP rankings, behind TCU, and they won’t play in the SEC Championship Game. But they know that either Michigan or Ohio State will lose, and the Vols are positioned to be the top 1-loss team.
The Vols play at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt for the next two weeks while awaiting their fate. In addition to hoping for a TCU loss down the stretch, the Vols will be in a good position if Georgia wins out, thus eliminating LSU as well. Tennessee throttled LSU on the road earlier this season, but as SEC Champions, the Tigers could jump ahead with a win over Georgia.
At +1200, the Vols’ odds will change mostly by what TCU and LSU do, and at +1200, it’s probably the best it will be before selections are made.
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