Media by Associated Press – Hash marks on the field during an NFL football game in Cleveland, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
Week 7 of the NFL season comes to an end on Monday when the New England Patriots host the Chicago Bears. Both teams have second-year quarterbacks and have been battling injuries in the early part of the season. The underlying story in this game is that Bill Belichick can pass Bears legend George Halas for the second most NFL Coaching wins of all time.
Let’s take a look at three bets to make during Monday Night Football on ESPN.
Under 39.5
The Bears’ offense has been a mess all season. They have had ten days off to try and fix things, but the last time we saw Chicago, they were scoring seven points against the Washington Commanders at home. Belichick and company have to be licking their chops waiting to tee off on Justin Fields, and the 31st-ranked passing offense in the NFL.
The Bears have the worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL, and the Patriots have the seventh-best pass rush. That is a bad combination for Chicago and for points in this game. The Bears will need to run the ball efficiently to have a chance, and David Montgomery has been hobbled this season, though Khalil Herbert has looked good in short bursts.
New England put 20 points on the board last week and 38 the week before. It sounds like they are going to get Mac Jones back under center this week, and while that will help in the long run, it could slow them down a bit in the near term.
Look for this game to be low-scoring and stay under 40 points for the game, with both punters getting a workout early.
Patriots -8
Going off the above stats, it is hard to imagine the Bears staying with the Patriots in this one. Chicago is not built to play from behind, as they have shown over and over again this season. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in five of their six games.
The Pats’ run game has been impressive lately, and Rhamondre Stevenson is taking over with 237 yards combined in the wins over Cleveland and Detroit. That should bold well for Monday night as the Bears rank 25th in the NFL against the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.
Fields takes a lot of sacks and struggles in the passing game. Belichick has always excelled against young quarterbacks, and in the last two weeks, they have held Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff to under 50% completion rates.
The Patriots are 12th in the league at 23.5 ppg, and if they get to 24 on Monday, they should be covering this spread.
Justin Fields Over 0.5 INT (-150)
This line will likely rise before kickoff, as the Patriots’ defense will be all over the bears on Monday night. The Pats have 12 takeaways this season, including six interceptions in six games.
Fields has thrown five interceptions on the season with only four touchdown passes. He was picked off last Thursday at home against Washington while also getting sacked five times. On the season, his completion rate is 54.8%, and he’s thrown less than 20 passes per game.
If the Bears are playing from behind, as expected, they will have to throw the ball. They don’t excel in that part of their offense at all, and if the Pats are able to rush the passer and close the pocket, Fields will be throwing on the run, and that leads to disaster for the Bears.
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