Media by Associated Press – Houston Astros’ Chas McCormick scores against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
This week is a unique betting week for the Major League Baseball playoffs. With a brand new format, it is a learning situation for Vegas, oddsmakers, and bettors. The four teams who advanced from the Wild Card round will now face fully rested division champions on the road.
So for at least game one, these ALDS and NLDS series will feature home teams with aces on the mound against underdogs with either their No. 3 or No. 4 starters. With a best-of-5 series, the first game is super important, and the quality of starting pitchers can sway the odds for the opener in favor of the home teams.
Let’s take a look at the top three betting options for Tuesday.
Houston Astros
The Seattle Mariners are the Cinderella story of the playoffs and the team most neutrals will be rooting for. But on paper, this series is a huge mismatch, especially in Tuesday’s opener. The Astros have all the experience, and they dominated the season series against Seattle in 2022.
Astros ace Justin Verlander has 31 postseason starts under his belt, while this will be the first for young Logan Gilbert. Verlander was 5-1 against Seattle this season with a 2.40 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 42.3 innings. He allowed just four earned runs in 21.1 innings at home.
Gilbert was good against the Astros in four starts this season, but he’s never been on this stage. Look for Houston to get to him early, and the hosts’ -1.5 (+105) is a good bet if the -215 money line is too juicy for you.
Atlanta Braves
Game one in Atlanta is a battle of lefties, but again it is a matchup of playoff experience from Max Fried against playoff inexperience from Ranger Suarez. The Phillies used Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing just two runs. But now they have Suarez against the Atlanta ace.
The Braves went 11-8 against Philadelphia this season and finished 14 games ahead of them in the NL East. Suarez was 1-2 overall, and 0-1 in two road starts against the Braves this season, allowing six runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In those five starts, he allowed three homers and went more than six innings just once.
The Braves are healthy, confident, and playing great baseball. They are 21-10 since September 1st and 55-26 at home this season. Look for the Braves at -195 to take the series opener, and they are +115 on the -1.5 run line.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The LA Dodgers have to be thrilled to see their rivals from San Diego come to town for the NLDS. It means they avoid having to face Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in the series, and they don’t have to travel cross country for games in New York.
And since that series went the distance in New York, the Dodgers are fully rested with a rotation ready to go, while the Padres won’t have Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, or Blake Snell for the opener.
Instead, they get to face a team they have dominated. The Dodgers were 14-5 against San Diego this season and are 38-16 the last three seasons, including a 2020 NLDS sweep.
Dodgers Game 1 starter Julio Urias is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last seven starts. He was 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts against San Diego this season.
On the flip side, Padres starter Mike Clevinger has a 6.09 ERA in his last seven starts, and he was 0-2 in three starts with a 9.26 ERA against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have a loaded bullpen and offense. They won 110 games this season and are on a mission to get revenge against Atlanta. They are -1.5 on the run line at -105 and -215 on the money line, making them the third favorite to bet on Tuesday.
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