Media by Associated Press – St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) in the ninth inning of a baseball game Thursday, Aug. 11, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
The Major League Baseball season hits the hot part of August with just over 40 games left in the season. Not only can division titles be won and lost in September, but so can Most Valuable Player awards. Players who get hot and carry their teams to a division title or playoff berth can also bump themselves up in the MVP race in the process.
As we cruise toward September, there are three clear-cut Most Valuable Player award favorites in the National League. Paul Goldschmidt has the best odds at -140 while Austin Riley is +400 and Nolan Arenado is +800.
After Freddie Freeman at +950, it drops off with no other players better than +1800. Goldschmidt is a huge favorite but let’s take a look at the top three contenders in more detail.
Goldschmidt is the Favorite
There’s no argument that the St. Louis Cardinals would not be in first place in the NL Central in mid-August without All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
From day one this season, he’s been a constant presence in a lineup that has been ravaged by injuries, and he serves as the balance between retiring veterans and exciting rookies. With just over 40 games to play, Goldschmidt is the NL MVP favorite at -140.
The Cardinals’ first baseman leads the NL in batting average (.328), slugging percentage (.612), and ranks second in total bases (248), runs (80), and on-base percentage (.413).
Goldschmidt is second in RBI (89), fourth in homers (28), and fifth in doubles (31). Against left-handed pitching, he is batting .432 and slugging .815 with seven homers, ten doubles, and 20 RBI.
A four-time Gold Glove winner, Goldschmidt is likely to be a finalist in that category again this season as well. In 92 games this season, Goldschmidt has just one error, and his glove work at first base is credited with saving the Cardinals numerous runs throughout the season.
Austin Riley Leading Braves
The next best odds go to Atlanta Braves’ third baseman Austin Riley at +400. The 25-year-old is having another great season after finishing seventh in MVP voting last year. With Freddie Freeman in LA, Riley has stepped up as the 3-hole hitter, batting in front of Matt Olson.
After a slow start, the Braves have more than 70 wins and are in prime position to make a return to October, either as NL East champs or as the top wild card team.
Riley leads the NL in total bases (259) and extra-base hits (66) while ranking second in slugging (.578), third in doubles (34), and 10th in batting average (.292). Power wise, Riley is second in home runs (30) and seventh in RBI (74).
Arenado Among the Contenders
It is quite possible that two St. Louis Cardinals players finish in the top three, and they could split the vote, helping Riley to win. Third baseman Nolan Arenado bats behind Goldschmidt and checks in at +800 to win the MVP. The 31-year-old has three career top-5 MVP finishes, and he was third while on Colorado in 2018.
Arenado leads NL players in WAR at 6.2, just ahead of Goldschmidt. He is third in slugging (.559), eighth in average (.297), eighth in RBI (73), and seventh in home runs (25).
It will be hard for Arenado to overtake his teammate and lineup neighbor to win the award without a monster September while Goldschmidt slumps.
Adding to his bat skills, Arenado is widely considered the best defensive third baseman in the game. He has won the Gold Glove in all nine of his MLB seasons, and this season has a.972 field percentage with only eight errors in 95 games.
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