Media by Associated Press – New York Mets pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) reacts during the first inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Sunday, July 3, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
The National League East leading New York Mets (49-30) can become the first team in the NL to win 50 games on Monday. For the July 4 holiday, the Mets head to Ohio to start a series with the Cincinnati Reds (27-51), the worst record in the NL. The first pitch on Monday is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, airing locally in both markets.
The Mets will start RHP Taijuan Walker (6-2, 2.72) against Reds fireballing RH Hunter Greene (3-9, 5.72). This is the first meeting of the season between the teams, and they will play a three-game series in New York next month. Last year they split three games, and the Mets are 4-2 in Cincinnati since the start of the 2019 season.
Escobar Leading Mets Offense
The Mets have hit their first prolonged slump of the season, dropping four of the last six and losing two of the last four series. They are 23-18 on the road this season and 31-26 as the favorites. The Mets are 7-3 against the NL Central and 11-8 in one-run games.
The Mets capped the weekend with a 4-1 win over the Texas Rangers as Eduardo Escobar and Starling Marte homered. Escobar homered in every game in the series. Marte also homered Saturday with two hits, and Francisco Lindor had two hits on Saturday. Pete Alonso had two hits in Friday’s win, and the Mets bullpen allowed just two runs in 12 innings for the series.
Jeff McNeil leads the Mets with a .217 average, while Luis Guillorme is batting .293 and Marte .284. Alonso is among the NL leaders with 22 home runs and 69 RBI, while Lindor has 12 home runs and 56 RBI.
Walker threw 7⅓ shutout innings in a no-decision against Houston on Wednesday, allowing four hits and striking out three. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts, striking out 31 batters in that span. Walker has allowed just three home runs over 72 ⅔ innings on the season, none in the last 25 innings.
Walker’s last outing against the Reds was a loss in 2017. He has only faced three players from the Reds lineup. Joey Votto is 1-for-2 with a home run, while Mike Moustakas is 0-for-7 and Tommy Pham is 1-for-6.
Reds Bats Scuffling into July
The Reds avoided a sweep against Atlanta with a 4-1 win on Sunday. The win ended a four-game losing streak, and they are 3-7 in the last ten games. Cincinnati is 12-26 at home this season, 20-35 against right-handed pitchers, and 3-7 against the NL East.
Albert Almora had the walk-off hit on Sunday, his second hit of the game. Brandon Drury drove in two runs with a pinch-hit double in the eighth inning. Cincinnati had just one hit on Saturday against Atlanta, a RBI single by Nick Senzel, and they scored just one run on Friday as Pham went 3-for-4 with a RBI.
No active Reds are batting over .300, and Kyle Farmer leads the team with a .280 average while Drury is batting .270. Drury leads the team with 16 home runs and 42 RBI, while Pham has 11 homers and 34 driven in. Farmer has 16 doubles and 39 RBI, while Votto has 15 doubles and 25 RBI.
Greene has 93 strikeouts in 74 innings this season and routinely hits 100 mph with his fastball. Last time out, he lost in Chicago, allowing three runs on two hits and two walks over four innings. He has struck out at least five batters in six of his last seven starts and gone at least five innings in five of those outings.
The 22-year-old is 2-3 at home this season with a 5.87 ERA in six starts. In 30⅔ innings, he has allowed nine homers at home while giving up 20 overall this season. Greene has never faced the Mets or any of the players on their roster.
Betting Analysis
- New York Mets -1.5 (-105) Moneyline -170
- Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-115) Moneyline +145
- Total Runs 9.5 Over -115. Under -105
The Reds have scored five runs or more just three times in their last ten games, and they lost one of those contests 15-7. They have allowed 37 runs in the last five games and now face a Mets team that can score in bunches.
Walker should outlast Greene, and the Mets have a distinct advantage once the game goes to the bullpen.
Betting Pick: Mets -1.5 (-105)
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