— Saturday, April 02nd North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils
Tobacco Road meets New Orleans this weekend when a pair of rivals meet in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in the second of Saturday’s Final Four games. The No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils (32-6) will have to beat rivals No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (28-9), to keep coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career going. Tip off at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set for approximately 8:50 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the game airing on TBS.
The road team won each of the regular-season meetings this year, with Duke winning in Chapel Hill 87-67 in February and UNC winning in Durham 94-81 in March. North Carolina leads the all-time series 142-115 and are 6-4 in the last 10. Duke is playing in their 13th Final Four under Coach K, and they are 9-3 in the semifinals. UNC has reached a Final Four in a record nine straight decades, and this is the second time they’ve done so with a first-year head coach.
Banchero Leads Balanced Blue Devils
Duke is 20-16-2 ATS this season, and the over is 21-16-1 in their 38 games. The over is 8-2 in their last ten games, but the under hit in the Elite Eight win over Arkansas. Duke is 8-1 in neutral site games this season, with the only loss coming to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke ranks ninth nationally at 80.4 ppg, and they are 13th in the nation, shooting 48.9% from the field. They shoot 37.7% from 3-point range, 24th in the country, while holding teams to 30.2%, which ranks 37th. Defensively they allow 66.0 ppg, which is 85th overall.
In the win back in February, freshman A.J. Griffin was 3-of-6 from 3-point range for a game-high 27 points. Wendell Moore Jr. and Paolo Banchero both had 13 points as Duke shot 58% from the field. In the March loss, Banchero had 23 while Mark Williams had a 16 point/13 rebound double-double.
Banchero leads Duke at 17.1 ppg and 7.7 rpg while also leading the team in free throws made. Moore averages 13.5 ppg and 4.5 apg, while Williams averages 11.3 ppg and 7.5 rpg. Duke has five players in double figures as Trevor Keels averages 11.3 ppg, and Griffin is at 10.5.
Bacot Cooking for Carolina
UNC is 20-16-1 ATS this season, and the over is 21-15-1 in their 37 games. They are 5-4 in neutral site games after starting the season 0-3 in neutral site games.
The Tar Heels rank 28th in the nation in scoring at 18.6 ppg after scoring 95 and 93 in the first two tournament games. They shoot 45.8% from the field and 37.4% from the 3-point range. The defense allows 72.6 ppg overall, but they have held three of their four opponents in the tournament to 66 points or less.
UNC doesn’t use their bench much as they go with a seven-man rotation. Armando Bacot led the team with 20 points and 22 rebounds against St. Peter’s, and he has 66 points and 63 rebounds in the four tournament games. Caleb Love had 14 against St. Peter’s and has 67 points in the tournament, while Brady Manek has a team-leading 86 points over the last four games.
In the win in Durham, UNC had four players score at least 20 points, led by Bacot with 23. North Carolina was +3 on the boards in that game, and they committed just five turnovers. In the first game, Bacot was held to 12 points, and Love had just eight as UNC shot 40% and got outrebounded by 16.
On the season, Bacot leads the team with 16.6 ppg and 12.8 rpg while shooting 59% from the field. Love averages 15.7 ppg and 3.7 apg, while Manek averages 15.2 ppg and 5.9 rpg. Both Manek and Love shoot better than 37% from 3-point range and have combined to make 181 from distance on the season.
Betting Analysis
- Duke Blue Devils -4.5 (-110). Money Line -200
- North Carolina Tar Heels +4.5 (-110). Money Line +165
- Total Points: 151.5 Over -110. Under -110.
This has all the makings of being an instant classic and should be one of the most viewed college basketball games in recent history. Expect a lot of scoring, early and often, and the team that controls their emotions and adrenaline the best will come out on top. UNC doesn’t turn the ball over, and Duke has a suffocating defense, but look for this one to go down to the wire.
Betting Pick: North Carolina +4.5 (-110)
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