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— Monday, January 31st West Virginia Mountaineers @ Baylor Bears
Two teams that lost in the Big-12/SEC Challenge meet up on Monday as they get back into conference play. The No. 4 Baylor Bears (18-3, 6-2) are in a position to get the season sweep against the West Virginia Mountaineers (13-7, 2-5), who have lost five in a row. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, and the game will air on ESPN.
Baylor beat West Virginia on the road 77-68 just two weeks ago. The teams only met once last year, and Baylor won on the road in overtime. They haven’t played in Waco since Baylor won by 11 on Feb. 15, 2020, and the Bears have taken five of the last six matchups overall, covering the spread in each win.
Mountaineers Reeling
It has been a tough month for Bob Huggins and his crew as they have lost five in a row, three of those to ranked teams. Since beating Oklahoma State on Jan. 11, the Mountaineers have lost to Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, with the first three of those teams ranked in the top 18 at the time of the game. A loss Monday sends WVU into a tie for last place in the Big 12 with Kansas State.
WVU is 8-12 ATS this season, and the over is 11-9 in their 20 games. They are just 1-4 on the road, with the win coming at UAB in December. They are 1-4 against ranked teams, having knocked off UConn in the Big 12/Big East Battle in mid-December.
On Saturday, they lost at Arkansas 77-68. Kedrian Johnson led the way with 18 points while Taz Sherman had 15 and Malik Curry had 11 off the bench. WVU shot just 38% from the field and got outrebounded 44-26 while also being called for 29 fouls that led to 34 Arkansas free throws.
Sherman leads WVU on the season with 18.3 ppg, and Sean McNeil averages 13.3. Sherman had 18 points against Baylor in the first meeting while McNeil had 17, and Curry led the team with 19 off the bench. WVU made 7-of-21 3-pointers in the first game but allowed the Bears to hit 12-of-27.
Balanced Bears Attack
After starting the season 15-0, the Bears are just 3-3 in the last six games, with two of those losses coming at home. They dropped back-to-back home games in conference play to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State earlier this month and lost at Alabama on Saturday.
The Bears are 12-8-1 ATS this season, and the over is 11-9-1 in their 21 games. They are 10-2 at home and 2-1 against ranked teams. They have a showdown at Kansas on Saturday and will host the Jayhawks at the end of February.
In Saturday’s loss, Baylor shot better from 3-point range (47.4%) than they did from inside the arc (45.2%). They also turned the ball over 16 times and allowed Alabama to shoot 60% from the field. Adam Flagler led the way with 19 points as he made 4-of-9 from 3-point range.
Baylor has five players in double-figure scoring on the season, with two more averaging more than 8.0 ppg. LJ Cryer leads the way at 13.9 ppg while James Akinjo (12.9), Flagler (12.7), Kendall Brown (10.1), and Matthew Meyer (10.0) are all in double figures. Cryer had 25 points in the first game against WVU while Mayer had 20, and the Bears made 12 3-pointers.
Betting Analysis
- West Virginia Mountaineers +14 (-105). Money Line +710
- Baylor Bears -14 (-115). Money Line -1100
- Total Points 138. Over -110. Under -110
The Bears will win this game; the question is if they cover. They have blown out the last two under .500 conference teams they’ve played, including a 25-point win over Kansas State last week. WVU is playing with little confidence right now on a long losing streak, and it is tough to see them staying with Baylor over 40 minutes.
Betting Pick: Baylor -14 (-115)
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