— Sunday, January 09th Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
The final game of the NFL regular season has everything on the line as the winner of the Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) matchup makes the playoffs. There is a scenario where the loser could also reach the playoffs, and both would make it if the Sunday game ends in a tie. Kickoff at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is set for 8:20 p.m. ET and will air on NBC.
When these teams met in October, the Chargers won 28-14 at home, easily covering the -3. The teams split last season, with the home team winning one-score games and the Raiders swept the season series in 2019. The Chargers hold a 6-4 advantage in the last ten meetings, and the Raiders lead all-time 66-56-2.
Herbert Has Chargers in Position
The Chargers are 8-8 ATS this season, and the over is 9-7 in their 16 games. They are 4-3 on the road, and the offense ranks fourth in the NFL in total offense (387.1 ypg) and passing yards (277.8). The Chargers are sixth in scoring (27.8), but the defense ranks 26th in points allowed at 26.5 while also giving up the second-most rushing yards in the league (136.7)
Quarterback Justin Herbert has completed 67 percent of his passes this season for 4,631 yards with 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’s topped 300 yards just once in the last four games after surpassing that total seven times in the first 12 contests. Herbert was held to 222 yards in the win over the Raiders on October 4 but threw three touchdown passes with no interceptions.
Austin Ekeler leads the Chargers with 847 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while also hauling in 65 passes for 612 seven more touchdowns. Justin Jackson has 344 yards and two rushing touchdowns, while Herbert has 301 yards and three scores on the ground. Ekeler gashed the Raiders for 145 total yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup.
The Chargers have an abundance of weapons at Herbert’s disposal, led by Keenan Allen with 100 catches for 1,086 yards and six touchdowns. Mike Williams has 67 catches for 1,027 yards and eight scores, while tight end Jared Cook has 44 catches for 484 yards and four touchdowns. Cook scored against the Raiders in October while Allen had seven catches, but Williams was held to one catch for 11 yards.
Raiders Closing the Season in Style
Las Vegas is 7-9 ATS this season, and the under is 9-7 in their 16 games. They are just 4-4 at home, and overall the offense ranks 18th in scoring (21.2) and sixth in passing yards (274.7). The defense is 24th in points allowed (25.4) and ninth against the run (214.6).
The Raiders were left for dead when they were blown out by the Chiefs 48-9 on December 12. But since that debacle, they are 3-0, beating three teams ahead of them at the time, to get in position to make the playoffs.
Derek Carr has 4,618 yards on the season with 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 69 percent completion rate. During their current win streak, he has 692 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. Carr was sacked four times by the Chargers in October as he threw for 196 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Running back Josh Jacobs is questionable with a rib injury, and he leads the team with 740 yards and eight touchdowns. He had his first 100 yard game of the season two weeks ago against Denver and scored last week in the win over the Colts. Jacobs ran for just 40 yards on 13 carries against the Chargers in October as the Raiders ended the game with just 48 yards on the ground.
Hunter Renfrow leads the Raiders with 99 catches for 1,025 yards and seven touchdowns. Tight end Darren Waller is second in receptions with 53 for 643 yards and two touchdowns. Waller and Renfrow both scored in the first game against the Chargers as they combined for 95 yards on ten catches.
Betting Analysis
- Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110). Money line -160
- Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-110). Money line +135
- Total Points: 49. Over -110. Under -110
By kickoff, both teams will know if it is a win-or-go-home night as the Raiders could make the playoffs with a loss, coupled with losses by the Colts and Steelers. The Chargers’ passing game is their big advantage, especially using Ekeler out of the backfield. This is a tough matchup for the Raiders, and if Los Angeles can take care of the ball, they should win and cover.
Betting Pick: Chargers -3 (-110)
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