>The New Orleans Saints have a forecast 55% chance to win against The Miami Dolphins with a spread of -2.5/2.5 and an over/under of 37.0. The New Orleans Saints are 0 – 0 against The Miami Dolphins in the 2021-22 Season.
— Monday, December 27th Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints
A pair of 7-7 teams with playoff aspirations meet to close out Week 16 in the NFL as the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are currently on the outside looking in for the playoff races, but the winner Monday will vault into a tie for the final spot in their conference. The kickoff at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set for 8:15 p.m. ET with the game on ESPN.
These teams meet every four years and have just 12 meetings all-time, with the series tied 6-6. The Saints have won the last three meetings by 20, 21, and 12, with the Dolphins’ last win coming at the Superdome in 1986. The last Dolphins win in the series came in Baton Rouge in 2005, the year before Sean Payton took over as coach of the Saints.
Dolphins On a Roll
Miami is 7-6-1 ATS this season, and the under is 8-6 in their 14 games. Miami has won six games in a row, scoring at least 20 points in five of those wins and allowing 17 or less five times. They are 2-3 on the road and have left Miami just once during the win streak, with the last road game coming on November 21.
The Dolphins defense ranks seventh against the run at 103.7 ypg, and they allow 22.3 ppg. Miami’s offense ranks 30th in the league in rushing at 86.6 yards per game. Myles Gaskin leads the team with 580 yards and three touchdowns, rushing for 54 yards last week against the Jets.
The pass game averages 228 yards per game. Tua Tagovailoa has played nine full games this season, with the team going 6-3 in those contests. He has 2,141 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while completing 70 percent of his passes.
Jaylen Waddle leads the team with 86 catches for 849 yards and four touchdowns. Last week he caught 11 balls for 90 yards against the Jets. Tight end Mike Gesicki has 64 catches for 685 yards and two touchdowns, while Gaskin has four touchdown catches.
Saints Defense Leading Team
The Saints are 7-7 ATS this season, and the under is 8-6 in their 14 games. They are 2-4 in home games, but just 1-4 at the Superdome with a win over Tampa Bay on Halloween.
The defense ranks fourth in scoring at 20.4 ppg and fifth against the run at 96.6 ypg. They have allowed just nine points in the last two weeks, including an impressive shutout of the Buccaneers last Sunday night. In the last two games, they have seven sacks, and they also forced a pair of Tom Brady turnovers last week.
The Saints passing game ranks 30th in passing yards at 194.6 ypg as they have had three different quarterbacks in 2021. Taysom Hill started and won the last two games but is likely out Monday with COVID-19, as is backup Trevor Siemian. If neither can go, Ian Book is set to make his NFL debut as the Saints starter.
The run game ranks 14th in the league at 117.1 ypg, led by Alvin Kamara’s 66.8 ypg in 10 starts. Kamara has four touchdowns, and he’s gone for 135 yards in two games since returning from injury. Expect the former Pro Bowler to carry a large load of the work if Hill and Siemian are both unavailable.
Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris have been the top wide receivers for the Saints this season. Callaway has 36 catches for 555 yards and six touchdowns, while Harris has 31 catches in 11 games for 523 yards and three scores. Kamara plays a big role in the passing game, too, with 38 catches for 348 yards and four touchdowns.
Betting Analysis
- Miami Dolphins -3 (-110). Money Line -160
- New Orleans Saints +3 (-110). Money Line +135
- Total: 37 points. Over -110. Under -110
It is rare to see the Saints as home underdogs, but it is the fourth time this season, and they only covered in one of the other three. With an untested quarterback, it is tough to back the Saints, even with the loud and boisterous crowd backing them.
Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense like this in over a month, but they should have what it takes to move to 8-7.
Betting Pick: Dolphins -3 (-110)
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