>The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a forecast 61% chance to win against The New Orleans Saints with a spread of -9.0/9.0 and an over/under of 46.5. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0 – 1 against The New Orleans Saints in the 2021-22 Season.
— Sunday, December 19th New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The New Orleans Saints have won six straight regular-season games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they will need to make it seven in a row to stay in the NFC South race. The 10-3 defending champions will clinch the division title with a win, while the 6-7 Saints are in the thick of a multi-team wild card race. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, and the game will air on NBC.
While the Saints won at home 36-27 on Halloween and have dominated the regular-season series since 2018, the Bucs did eliminate New Orleans from the playoffs last January. All-time, the Saints lead the series 38-22, and they are unbeaten at Raymond James since New Year’s Eve 2017. The winning team has scored at least 28 points in each of the last 11 games.
New Orleans Backs to the Wall
The Saints are 6-7 ATS this season, and the under is 7-6 in their 13 games. The offense has struggled under three different quarterbacks, ranking 20th in passing, 14th in rushing, 16th in scoring, and 23rd overall. The defense ranks 11th overall, 6th against the run, and 18th against the pass.
Running back Alvin Kamara returned last week after missing four games with injury, and he piled up 120 rushing yards plus 25 receiving yards and a touchdown. Overall the Saints ran for 203 yards against the Jets last week but now face a tough run defense in Tampa.
Quarterback Taysom Hill was great against New York last week, completing 71 percent of his passes for 175 yards. He also ran for 73 yards and two scores and has six rushing touchdowns in six career starts at quarterback. Hill has four interceptions in two games as a starter this season and will need to protect the ball against Tampa.
New Orleans will be without head coach Sean Payton (COVID) but are hoping to get defensive end Cameron Jordan and running back Mark Ingram back from the COVID list. Jordan will be key as he has 8.5 career sacks in nine games against Tampa and forced a fumble in the first meeting.
The Saints’ defense may need to carry them in this game. Marshon Lattimore will likely cover Mike Evans all game, and the two have had quite the legendary battles over the years. New Orleans has 14 interceptions and 29 sacks on the season but did not force a turnover against the Jets last week.
Bucs All About Brady
The Bucs are 7-6 ATS, and the over is 7-6 in their 13 games. They are +9 in the turnover battle on the season, and the offense ranks 1st overall, 1st in passing, 1st in scoring, and 25th in rushing. The defense has slipped a bit this season, ranking 14th overall but 3rd against the run.
Tom Brady leads the NFL in yards (4,134), completions (378), and touchdowns (36) but is still looking for his first regular-season win over the Saints since joining Tampa. He’s been awesome at home with a 7-0 record, 26 passing touchdowns, and four interceptions in his last seven games at Raymond James.
Running back Leonard Fournette has 778 yards on the season and eight rushing touchdowns while also catching 62 passes and scoring twice as a receiver. Ronald Jones II has 274 rushing yards and three scores, while Brady has two rushing touchdowns.
Evans needs 115 yards receiving to reach the 1000 mark for a record eight-consecutive time to start a career. He leads Tampa with 11 touchdowns which is also tied for second in the NFL. Chris Godwin has a personal-best 92 receptions on the season, and with the Saints keying on Evans, Godwin went for 140 yards and a touchdown in the October meeting.
Betting Analysis
- New Orleans Saints +11.5 (-110). +425 Money Line
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.5 (-110) -600 Money Line
- Total Points: 45.5 Over -110. Under -110
It will be quite an upset if the Saints can knock off Brady and the Bucs yet again on national TV. Tampa Bay has the division title waiting for them, and the offense has been unstoppable at home, putting up at least 30 points in every home game this season. Hill and the Saints can’t compete with that and may not even be able to keep it close.
Betting Pick: Bucs -11.5 (-110)
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