— Monday, December 06th New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Week 13 of the NFL schedule very likely saved the best for last as first place in the AFC East is on the line Monday night. The first meeting of the year between rivals New England (8-4) and Buffalo (7-4) could also go a long way in determining the top seed in the AFC. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET Monday at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, and the contest will air on ESPN.
This matchup has been dominated by the Patriots ever since Bill Belichick took over, as they are 35-7 since 2000. Belichick and Brady had more wins together against the Bills than any other team with a 32-3 mark. Last year, with Brady gone, Buffalo got their first sweep of the Patriots since the 1999 season with 38-9 and 24-21 wins.
Patriots Clicking on Offense
The Patriots head into Monday’s game on a six-game winning streak in which they have won by an average of 35-11. Even more impressive is the fact that the Pats haven’t allowed a single point in the second half of the last three games.
Rookie Mac Jones has played well this season at quarterback for the Patriots. He has 2,850 yards, 16 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on the season while completing 70 percent of his passes. During the win streak, he has nine touchdowns and two interceptions while completing at least 67 percent of his passes in five games.
Damien Harris leads the rushing attack with 643 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. He has scored in six of his last seven games. Rhamondre Stevenson has 351 yards and three touchdowns on the season and went for 100 against Cleveland with two scores after Harris got a concussion.
Jakobi Meyers has been the top target for Jones with 59 catches for 620 yards and one touchdown. Kendrick Bourne has 42 catches for 623 yards and five scores, while Nelson Agholor has 32 catches and three touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Henry is the top red-zone target with seven touchdowns on the season.
Cornerback J.C. Jackson ranks second in the NFL with seven interceptions, and he has four in the last four games. He was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November and leads the NFL with 24 interceptions since the start of the 2018 season. Also on defense, linebacker Matt Judon has a career-high 11.5 sacks in his first year with the Pats.
Bills Searching for Consistency
Last Thursday, the Bills showed signs of returning to the offensive juggernaut they have been the last two years. They put 31 on the board to beat the Saints on the road and are now averaging 37 points in their seven wins this season. However, they average just 17 in their four losses, and the Chiefs are the only winning team they have defeated in 2021.
Quarterback Josh Allen was an MVP candidate through October but has seven interceptions in the last four games and lost two fumbles. Overall he has 3.071 passing yards, 383 rushing yards, and 25 touchdown passes. Allen has thrown ten interceptions on the season and been sacked 17 times while also rushing for three scores.
The run game has been a letdown with just three touchdowns from running backs all season. Devon Singletary has two of those to go with a team-leading 459 yards in 11 games. Newcomer Matt Breida has the other rushing score, and he has 105 yards in three games.
Wideout Stefon Diggs leads the Bills with 67 catches for 847 yards and seven touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has proven a solid deep-threat option averaging 16 yards per catch with four touchdowns. Tight end Dawson Knox leads the team with seven touchdown catches on 31 total receptions.
Buffalo will be without starting cornerback Tre’Davious White who injured his knee against the Saints. Dane Jackson will start in his place, and Buffalo will need to be creative in the secondary to confuse Jones. The Bills have 16 interceptions on the season to go with 21 sacks and nine fumble recoveries.
Betting Analysis
- New England Patriots +2.5 (+100). Money line +120
- Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-120) Money line -140
- Total Points: 41. Over -105. Under -115
The Patriots are playing their best football of the season right now, and the Bills are largely inconsistent even at home. While Buffalo did knock off the Pats last year twice, this is a different New England team this season. At plus odds, you gotta ride the hot hand and take the Patriots on national TV.
Betting Pick: Pats to win
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