The Buffalo Bills will travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC matchup. The Bills are 3-1 this season and are coming off a 40-0 blowout home win over the Houston Texans.
Josh Allen played decently well as he went 20-of-30 for 248 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. The Chiefs are sitting at 2-2 this year and are coming off a 42-30 road win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Patrick Mahomes had a great game as he finished 24-of-30 for 278 yards with five touchdowns and an interception.
Diggs-ing Out of the Hole
The Buffalo Bills love to throw the football, and it helps when they have a top-10 wide receiver like Stefon Diggs. So far this season, Diggs has 26 receptions for 305 yards (11.7 yards per catch) with a receiving touchdown.
Looking at the last games against the Houston Texans, Diggs finished with seven receptions on 11 targets for 114 yards (16.3 yards per catch). If he can figure out how to take advantage of this weak Kansas City Chiefs defense, it will do wonders for their air raid.
The Buffalo Bills have been incredible defensively this season as they are giving up 11 points per game. In their previous game against the Houston Texans, they did not allow a point on just 109 total yards of offense (61 passing, 48 rushing).
The biggest takeaway was the fact that they held Houston to 1-of-9 on third down and 1-of-2 on fourth down. If the Bills can limit the production from the Chiefs’ offense, they’ll be having a great shot here.
Climbing Every Hill
The Kansas City Chiefs love to pass the ball as well, and their biggest deep threat is wide receiver Tyreek Hill. So far on the season, he is in the top-three in receptions (30), receiving yards (453), and touchdown receptions (4).
Looking at his previous game against the Philadelphia Eagles, he finished with 11 catches on 12 targets for 186 yards (16.9 yards per catch) with three touchdowns. If Hill can beat this stellar Buffalo defense, it will really help the Chiefs do well in this game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been struggling on the defensive side of the field this season as they are giving up 31.3 points per game so far. In their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles, they allowed 30 points on 461 total yards of offense (358 passing, 103 rushing).
They need to improve on not allowing too many yards, as Philly averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. If Kansas City can figure out how to limit the opposing offense, they can get back to normal record-wise.
Who to Bet On?
This game is expected to be a tight one as the consensus odds are that Kansas City is considered to be a three-point home favorite. However, I do not buy that as Buffalo is currently 3-1 ATS this year while Kansas City has covered just once in four games.
The Bills may not force the Chiefs to a handful of points, but they can make Mahomes’ life a living hell for 60 minutes, while I do not see an option for the Chiefs defense to force Josh Allen out of the pocket enough and make bad reads with the football.
The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against the Chiefs but don’t be scared to take them on the moneyline either at +130 here.
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